• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB Ja’Quan McMillian, Denver Broncos: Smith-Njigba is a borderline WR2/3.
• WR Mike Williams, New York Jets vs. CB Charvarius Ward, San Francisco 49ers: Williams faces a potential shadow matchup on limited snaps.
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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Identifying advantageous and disadvantageous cornerback matchups is a critical facet of fantasy football’s lineup-setting process. This article details three wide receivers who can be started with confidence and three wide receivers who should be avoided, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart in Week 1.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB Ja’Quan McMillian, Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks second-year slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces a lackluster Denver Broncos pass defense in Week 1, keyed by a matchup to target — slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian. Smith-Njigba is a borderline WR2/3. His 63.3 PFF receiving grade ranks 51st among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 630 offensive snaps in 2023.
PFF Greenline implies Seattle will score 24.0 points as a -6.0-point home favorite.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Smith-Njigba and McMillian to face each other on 22 of 30 receiving snaps.
As detailed previously, “among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps, McMillian ranks outside the top 20 in targeted rate (16.9%), yards allowed per coverage snap (1.20), explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.9%) and forced incompletion rate (4.6%). His 58.7 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 31st.”
Smith-Njigba’s 2023 slot role afforded him 58 receiving snaps (16.6% rate) facing linebackers in primary coverage. As detailed previously, Denver’s linebackers offer little passing game coverage ability, and the new starting safety corps is limited in its ability to provide cover for McMillian and the linebackers.
Smith-Njigba was deemed the NFC West’s best fantasy football draft pick thanks to his perfect schematic fit in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s aggressive, downfield passing scheme. Smith-Njigba averages 14.8 yards per reception and a 33.3% explosive pass play rate on targets thrown at least 10 yards downfield.
His talents will be on full display against McMillian in Week 1.
WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants vs. CB Shaquill Griffin, Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants first-round rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers has winnable cornerback matchups against the Minnesota Vikings, particularly against defensive-left cornerback Shaquill Griffin, boosted by his multifaceted pre-snap usage and high-volume workload. He is a borderline WR1/2 for the occasion. Nabers’ 93.1 PFF receiving grade ranks first among 22 Power Five wide receivers with at least 100 targets in 2023.
PFF Greenline lists New York as a +1.0-point home underdog, reinforcing the offense’s passing-volume projection.
As detailed by PFF senior fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke, Nabers earned a 33.3% first-team target share (six targets) and one rushing attempt, logging 19 receiving snaps against the Houston Texans. Nabers promisingly earned two targets while open, two targets with a step on the defensive back and two targets on tight-window throws.
As detailed previously, Nabers is menacing after the catch, elevating his per-reception productivity to an already elite level.
Nabers’ 50.0% preseason wide-right alignment suggests Griffin, who primarily operates as a defensive-left cornerback, will be Nabers’ primary coverage foe. Griffin’s last two seasons include an injured reserve-worthy back injury and a mid-season release. Among 77 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 425 perimeter coverage snaps from 2022 to 2023, Griffin ranks outside the top 60 in targeted rate (17.8%), catch rate allowed (65.8%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (1.35). His 65.3 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks 52nd. He produced a career-low 8.5% forced incompletion rate last year.
New York cornerback Stephon Gilmore lined up primarily on the defensive-right in seven of his 12 NFL seasons. He turns 34 in September and remains a talented ballhawk when contesting catches but opposing quarterbacks noticed his waning mobility in 2023, targeting him in primary coverage at the highest rate since his 2015 season, 16.5%. Gilmore’s 70.6 PFF perimeter-coverage grade and 1.29 yards allowed per coverage snap respectively rank 19th and 26th among 34 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 435 perimeter coverage snaps in 2023. Nabers’ elite athletic traits are problematic for Gilmore.
Nabers’ 19.1% interior (slot and/or in-line) pre-snap alignment rate gives Nabers access to slot cornerback Byron Murphy Jr., whose 2021 to 2023 target-oriented reveals a consistently exploited defender. Murphy’s targeted rate during that span ranges from 16.0% to 16.2% while his catch rate ranges from 68.0% to 61.2%. He forced just three combined incompletions over the last two seasons and allowed career-highs in both yards allowed per coverage snap (1.71) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (3.9%), ranking bottom-two in both categories among 42 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 180 slot-coverage snaps in 2023. His 48.3 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks third-worst.
Nabers is a borderline WR1/2.
WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CB Michael Davis, Washington Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers third-round rookie, No. 3 wide receiver Jalen McMillan is a flex option facing the Washington Commanders’ league-worst perimeter cornerback corps, keyed by a matchup against defensive-left cornerback Michael Davis. McMillan’s 82.5 PFF preseason offense grade ranks eighth among 231 NFL wide receivers with at least 29 offensive snaps. As detailed in “QB/DEF Streamers for Week 1,” “Davis earned a 54.3 PFF coverage grade last year, his second sub-55.0 PFF coverage grade over the last three seasons.”
PFF Greenline implies Tampa Bay will score 23.5 points as a -3.5-point home favorite.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives McMillan an average 61.2 receiving matchup advantage rating against Davis.
McMillan successfully transitioned to a perimeter-focused role this preseason, logging a 51.7% wide-right rate, 20.7% wide-left rate and a 27.6% slot rate.
As stated previously, McMillan stood out while playing with the first-team offense, concluding the preseason “with one contested catch, one missed tackle forced and two explosive pass plays” on six targets, efficiently averaging 3.56 yards per route run (YPRR).
Washington’s top three perimeter cornerbacks, Benjamin St-Juste (21), Emmanuel Forbes (18) and Davis (18), combined for 57 explosive pass plays allowed last season. Their individual tallies comprise three of the position’s 15-highest totals.
McMillan took seven snaps in two-receiver sets this preseason, suggesting head coach Todd Bowles is at least considering McMillan a potential two-wide receiver-set contributor. The expected game script could result in veterans being rested in the fourth quarter, which increases McMillan’s odds of taking play-action snaps as Tampa Bay shifts to a run-heavy focus.
McMillan’s matchup puts him on the flex radar thanks to his explosive pass-play potential against Washington.
WR Mike Williams, New York Jets vs. CB Charvarius Ward, San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets new No. 2 wide receiver Mike Williams makes his post-ACL reconstruction (ACLR) return against the San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward, in a potential shadow-coverage matchup. Williams’ 74.6 PFF offense grade ranks 37th among 157 NFL wide receivers with at least 160 offensive snaps in 2023.
PFF Greenline implies New York will score 20.0 points as +3.5-point road underdogs.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Williams a poor 15.0 receiving matchup advantage rating against Ward.
Ward earned second-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors for his 2023 campaign, twice shadowing big-bodied X-wide receivers along the perimeter, late in the season. Williams’ 84.8% pre-snap perimeter alignment rate from 2021 to 2023 suggests the two will battle out-wide at a similar frequency.
Ward (6-foot-1, 196 pounds) is a physical player who rarely allows wide receivers to gain separation while effectively contesting catches. Among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter-coverage snaps in 2023, Ward ranks 15th in catch rate allowed (55.2%), 12th in forced incompletion rate (17.7%) and third in open-target rate (32.3%). Ward’s 85.3 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ties for fourth.
New York head coach Robert Saleh told reporters Williams will play on a limited snap count despite being more than 10 months removed from his October 25th ACLR operation. Over the last three seasons, Williams was deemed open on just 47.9% of his receiving snaps, typically winning by clashing at the catch point. With expectedly limited mobility and opportunity, Williams cannot be counted on against a cornerback who specializes in playing Williams’ game.
WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots vs. CB Mike Hilton, Cincinnati Bengals
New England Patriots slot receiver Demario Douglas is a talented player stuck in a difficult Week 1 matchup, making him a player to avoid. Douglas’ 63.5 PFF offense grade ranks 36th among 97 NFL slot receivers with at least 18 offensive snaps in the 2024 preseason.
PFF Greenline implies New England will score just 16.0 points as +8.5-point road underdogs.
As detailed in “QB/DEF Streamers for Week 1,” Cincinnati’s pass rush will regularly disrupt New England’s passing offense. Jahnke ranks New England’s offensive line as the NFL’s sixth-worst pass-protection unit.
Jahnke also noted that Douglas played all 28 preseason snaps in three-receiver sets (11 personnel), 20 of which while lined up in the slot. Douglas will be limited to matchup-based fantasy usage if the coaching staff refuses to play him in two-receiver sets.
As mentioned in the streaming defense piece, “Cincinnati slot cornerback Mike Hilton’s 75.9 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks 11th among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps in 2023. His 10.6% forced incompletion rate ranks 13th and his 1.5% interceptions per target rate ranks 17th.” He ranks sixth or better in tackles (35), stops (16) and first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate allowed (25.8%).
Douglas averages 1.67 YPRR from the slot, the 12th-best among 32 NFL slot receivers with at least 205 slot-receiving snaps but relies heavily on post-catch production; his 5.8 yards after the catch per reception rank seventh. He fights admirably through contact at the catch point, tying for 15th in contested catch rate (40.0%).
Hilton’s ability to challenge in the air and quickly close on the ball carrier bodes poorly for Douglas. This is a matchup to avoid.
WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals vs. CB Christian Benford, Buffalo Bills
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson’s 2023 rookie campaign showed promise but he ultimately failed to establish himself as a difference-making No. 2 wide receiver. His matchup against the Buffalo Bills’ talented Nos. 2 and 3 cornerbacks is one to avoid. Wilson’s 68.7 PFF receiving grade ties for 45th among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps in 2023.
PFF Greenline implies Arizona will score 21.25 points as +6.0-point road underdogs, tying for Week 1’s second-largest point spread.
Among 64 NFL wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps in 2023, Wilson’s 14.2% target rate ranks 48th and 1.36 YPRR ranks 42nd. Wilson’s most statistically evident skill is his post-catch production ability, though his 3.8 yards after the catch per reception helped him tie for just the 37th spot.
Buffalo acquired its No. 1 perimeter cornerback, Rasul Douglas, in Week 9, 2023. He logged a 46.1% defensive-right plurality rate during that span and was assigned shadow-coverage duties against opposing No. 1 wide receivers in four-of-10 games. Fantasy managers should expect Douglas to travel opposite Arizona’s first-round rookie X-wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., setting up Wilson for a significant snap share opposite No. 2 perimeter cornerback Christian Benford.
Among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 320 perimeter-coverage snaps in 2023, Benford ranks 24th in forced incompletion rate (15.0%), 13th in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.84) and seventh in targeted rate (11.9%). His 85.3 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ties for fourth. Douglas’ 84.2 PFF perimeter-coverage grade ranks seventh.
Wilson’s 25.1% pre-snap alignment slot rate from 2023 fails to improve his scoring odds. Buffalo slot cornerback Taron Johnson dissuaded quarterbacks from targeting him at the position’s fourth-best rate (12.8%) and allowed just 0.76 yards per coverage snap, the fifth-fewest among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 200 slot-coverage snaps in 2023. His 83.6 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks fourth.
This is a matchup to avoid.
