The problem with fantasy baseball sleepers (and maybe sleepers for every fantasy sport) is they’re not sleepers once you discuss them. The more they’re discussed as sleepers, the more they are not sleepers. The true sleepers, the guys no one discusses, aren’t sleepers because no one mentions them as sleepers. See, it’s a Catch 22. A guy is only a sleeper if you don’t mention them as a sleeper. I bring this up because I can already feel people say Mitch Keller? He’s not a sleeper. He’s been discussed as a sleeper too much. Yeah, well, without that discussion of Mitch Keller being a sleeper, he wouldn’t have been a sleeper. And with that discussion of him being a sleeper it made him a sleeper, which makes him not a sleeper. Ergo, vis-a-vie, therefore, there’s no such thing as a sleeper. Instead, there’s guys who are being drafted 50 spots or greater than the fantasy value they’re going to return. We will call these guys beaters. Beaters beat their draft value with their fantasy value. Get a beater, they’re great value! This sales pitch works less well if you’re a new car salesman. Who doesn’t love a beater? So, what can we expect from Mitch Keller for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a beater?
PSYCHE! I’ve rolled out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Mitch Keller sleeper:
Mitch Keller had a .176 BAA with his 95 MPH fastball that he threw 26.1% of the time. No beaters beating that! (You thought I’d let the beater thing go after the opening paragraph? Ha! You underestimated me! You can’t beat me off beaters! Hmm, that sounds wrong.) So, up front, Mitch Keller had one of the best fastballs in the game. He also figured out, finally, that you can’t throw it every pitch. He went from 56.8% of the time with his fastball, which is a hilariously high percentage, all the way to 26%. He might actually be throwing it a tad too little now. He threw his fastball about as much as Zack Greinke, which is again very funny (if you’re a big time nerd). Greinke’s “fast”ball was 89 MPH and a negative pitch. That Keller throws it the same amount as him — well, throw it more, Mitch, it’s a great pitch! I’m a poet, and aware of it. Keller’s expected batting average against on his fastball was 2nd best in the league. Only pitcher with a better fastball was Felix Bautista. Arguably the best closer last year and Mitch Keller. That’s it. One guy who only had to pitch one inning a game on most occasions and Mitch Keller. His K% on the fastball was 43.3%. Once again: Absurd. He was the best in the league by a lot. 2nd and third were Matt Strahm and Bautista again. Keller is not a one-pitch pitcher, but you can understand why only a few years ago he was throwing that pitch nearly 60% of the time. Gerrit Cole was only 28.2% K% on his fastball. Keller was 43.3%! Okay, moving on!
Some of his other pitches are dogshizz. That’s, how do I say this, a problem. Someone needs to tell Keller he needs to lay off some of his more dogshizzy pitches. For unstints, his curve had a .273 BAA and his change had a .360 BAA. That’s garbage in a car’s glove compartment parked on the surface of the sun. Here’s the thing though, if I can figure this out — this unlocking of success — even if the Pirates’ coaching staff is terrible, Keller can only the pitches that are good. Right? Pause for emphasis, then capped, RIGHT? Yes, he can. In April of last year, he threw that change 4% of the time, by September, it was 1.9. His curve was 13% of the time in April, and, boy, were those hideous pitches. By September, he was only throwing it 3% of the time. This shows you that everyone recognized those pitches were not working and he stopped using them.
His 1st half and 2nd half splits don’t reflect this, which is actually good for him being a beater. This might scare people off. His ERA in the 2nd half was 5.59, but his BABIP was .345; his xFIP was 3.88 and his BB/9 was 2.4 with a 9.4 K/9, i.e., his 2nd half is dragging down his overall numbers, and there’s hope that those numbers won’t be anywhere near as bad next year. This is guy whose numbers are all trending in the right way, except for his 2nd half, but I think we can write that off partially. This is a beater to make that dough! For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Mitch Keller projections 12-8/3.77/1.18/208 in 191 IP with a chance for more.
