There’s some starting pitcher sleepers for 2024 fantasy baseball, or any year, honestly, who take about two seconds to locate, depending on how long it takes you to open your eyes and the latest ADP charts. The former should be a millisecond, depending on the amount of Ambien you’re taking, and the latter depends on your internet connection. Scan all the pitchers and try not to bulge your eyes too much like you’re an MLB mascot with Graves disease when you see Braxton Garrett around pick 190 overall. To fight the eyes bulge, the eyes will naturally roll when they see Braxton Garrett after Carlos Rodon, after Chris Sale — apples and oranges — but after Trevor Story, after Kiebert Ruiz, after so many guys. Braxton Garrett’s last year: 9-7/3.66/1.15/156 in 159 2/3 IP. If he just repeats that, he’s solid for 2024 fantasy. If he repeats that, he’s the 41st best starter in fantasy. If he repeats that, I repeat, he’s rosterable and draftable in all fantasy leagues — in a 10-team fantasy baseball league with five starters on each team. In a league with nine owners and one owner with severe amnesia, who thinks they’re a cuckoo clock. They should be cuckoo for Braxton Garrett. So, what can we expect from Braxton Garrett for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’ve rolled out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Braxton Garrett sleeper:
I know no one wants to talk about last year, but, sadly, we can’t forget it completely. As much as us who drafted Bo Bichette instead of Acuña would like to. If you look at last year’s Player Rater, you see Braxton Garrett at 138th overall. He’s being drafted 50 picks after that, so he’s automatically value. Without any gains. Of course, we wouldn’t be here if there weren’t a chance for gains. All about those gains. This is Florida, and we’re in Gainesville. I’m in Vegas doing impressions, call me Danny Gains. Every year we see guys who are more valuable at the end of the previous year than they’re being drafted. Why does this happen? Da fudge I know. Prolly goes back to the opening of this ‘graph when I said I know you don’t want to talk about last year.
As I’ve said numerous times, I want to focus all my energies on pitchers with great command. What I’ve realized last year is if you’re going to give every pitcher who takes a walk a double with the pitch clock, then you want to limit baserunners. That’s not entirely new, but it’s more pronounced now. Lee-mitt bey-ssssss-ruh-ners. Limit baserunners, more pronounced. On just walk rates, Braxton Garrett had the 4th best in the majors. 1.6 BB/9 is extremely “yay, daddy.” The top 3: George Kirby, Zach Eflin, Logan Webb, their ERAs respectively: 3.35, 3.50, 3.25. Their xFIPs: 3.63, 3.12, 2.95. Braxton Garrett’s 3.42. This is before going into the weeds, and it’s already clear as day that Braxton is about as can’t miss as they come. Braxton will unbreak my heart!
When you have amazing command, what is it that you think of with a pitcher? They can identify how many days until an avocado is ripe by looking at it? What? That’s an odd guess. No, what I was going for is if a pitcher has great command, they’re around the plate. This is, of course, true. But, buddy, Garrett does one better than that. Clear eyes, full heart, can’t lose, he had the 20th best swing percentage for pitches outside the zone. Think about what that means. He’s always so in the zone, that hitters swing at everything, even when he’s not in the zone. That’s fantastic. It’s hard to find a pitcher in the top 20 of swings outside the zone who are not good at all.
Here’s something even more remarkable: Braxton Garrett is bottom three for starters with 150 IP for percentage of pitches swung at in the zone. He throws the ball in the zone and no one recognize the pitches as strikes, so they don’t swing. He was the 4th best for called strikes, behind Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and Zach Eflin. He is tied with Zac Gallen for 30th best Swinging Strike percentage with 11.2%. So, he’s getting no one to swing at pitches in the zone, and getting everyone to swing at pitches outside the zone and missing on swings and watching other strikes. Frankly, that’s incredible. Wanna make a little bit of a crazy bet? Braxton Garrett for 2024 Cy Young. He’ll just need a little luck with wins, because he’s going to be an ace. Even the innings should be there, after he threw 160 IP last year. I’m slightly nuts for him, and you should be too. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Braxton Garrett projections of 13-6/3.08/1.06/192 in 188 IP with a chance for much more.
