It certainly feels like the Rays make every pitcher they touch better. Just a few in the past few years have been Drew Rasmussen, Jeffery Springs, and last season pointed out by yours truly, Zach Eflin. In said article, I predicted the coronation of a king. I did something I hadn’t done to that point, I predicted changes the Rays might make to Eflin’s pitching approach and was mostly right. Woo! High-five! Anyway, with that essay plus previous season work covering the other two mentioned above, I feel like I’ve got a beat on what the Rays like to see from pitchers, especially the guys they want to target and tinker.
This year’s project, Aaron Civale, may not have some of the dominating features that the others carry, but he is cut from the same cloth, specifically Eflin and Rasmussen. You will see what the Rays can and likely will do with him. Because they have already done it [dramatic crescendo of music]. Quick, to the Batcave!
What’s a deep dive without a few data points? Before we can project this year, let’s look at what happened after the trade deadline when he was traded to Tampa Bay. I present to you, The Shift.
| Date | IP | ERA | WHIP | SIERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APR-JUL | 77 | 2.34 | 1.04 | 4.71 | 6.78 | 2.57 | 0.58 | 0.242 | 82.70% |
| AUG-SEP | 45.1 | 5.36 | 1.37 | 3.36 | 11.51 | 2.18 | 1.39 | 0.370 | 68.80% |
Okay, so what are we looking at here? So the first and obvious thing to point out: after he went to the Rays, he allowed many hits and many more runs resulting in his ERA shooting to the moon. This, however, came with [checks table above, then once more] a spike in his K-rate to nearly 12(!!!) without increasing his walks. So his efficiency of out pitches went through the roof, more on that in a bit.
The big bad here, which led to the ballooning ERA, can all be traced back to that BABIP line. Once Aaron Civale began pitching for the Rays balls in play found gaps and holes to a clip of .370; almost 40% of contact turned into hits. His career average is around the .280 mark, almost 100 points lower. The BABIP doesn’t even take into account home runs, which he also saw a large spike in. And as you would expect, All these things lowered his left-on-base rate (LOB) from 82.7% to 68.8%.
When we look at the big picture, seeing his lower BABIP and suppressed home run rate in the first half tells us Civale was overachieving a bit early on. Call it “lucky.” This is confirmed by his SIERA being nearly 2 runs higher than his then ERA. On the flip side, you see the opposite being true after joining the Rays. His ERA was exactly 2 runs higher than his SIERA, this is compounded by his higher K-rate. Why is that? He was getting out of jams with strikeouts that saved his bad luck from being terrible luck. What if he retains some of that K-rate and his luck returns to his career average or better?
Now we’re getting somewhere. “How was he able to boost his strikeouts? And is it repeatable?” I hear you thinking loudly to yourself (or at least you should be). Remember when I said Civale is cut from the same cloth? He is a little unique in the sense that he is primarily a cutter-curveball pitcher. There are not many of those on teams’ starting rotations. But one, as recently as last year, is Zach Eflin. Or at least he is now. Last year the Rays tweaked Eflin’s cutter and then had him use it much more frequently than he had ever done so before.
2023 Pitch arsenal comparisons from August 1st to September 30th.
| Player | FA | SI | FC | SL | CU | CH* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 10.3% | 29.1% | 24.2% | 8.7% | 23.1% | 4.6% |
| Aaron Civale | 12.5% | 20.7% | 35.6% | 7.1% | 22.6% | 1.5% |
Both pitchers command a similar arsenal with the one exception being change and what I’ll call Civale’s split-change (sits around 85 mph). Either way, those pitches are largely unimportant; but, what is important is that both pitchers command the zone above average with their best pitches being a cutter, slider, and curveball with similar velocity (all within ~1 mph).
What worked for Eflin? Last year Eflin made a big jump in his cutter usage going from 13.9% to 24.7%. And was a game-changer for him. He focused on using his cutter at the bottom of the zone, he had limited but targeted usage of fastball at the top of the zone or just above and threw his slider and curveball for strikes at the bottom of the zone. I believe we see a recipe for success here with Aaron Civale.
After he made the move to Tampa Bay, we saw a preview of some of what we can expect for Civale in 2024. Though he has said in interviews that the Rays largely let him do his own thing at the end of the season so they could observe him… he alluded to getting a different perspective on data. This has always been the Rays bread and butter, equipping their pitchers with the best information to make the best decisions.
So back to Civale, he and Eflin both have a mediocre fastball, the subtext being “if featured as primary pitch.” Eflin was able to weaponize it via tunneling (fastball up, curve/slider down) because he has an above-average curveball and slider. Sound familiar? One advantage that Civale has is his fastball has more natural rise on it than Eflin’s. Almost as much as Rasmussen, whose fastball is nearly 4 mph, umm, faster. Hello there.
Bring on the heatmaps!
On the left is Civale’s fastball usage before being traded, and on the right is his fastball usage after. Would you look at that! Painting the top of the zone and running it up out of the zone too. He also has effectively “hidden” his fastball. Last year he only got barreled up on his fastball twice the entire season. Yep, only twice in 122 IP.
Not only that, but on the Rays, in the limited sample his K-rate on the fastball jumped nearly 10 points to a career-high of 37%. I’m not saying this going to be sustainable across an entire season. But I’m also not saying that it’s nothing either. The point is, he was able to weaponize it at the top of the zone in 2-strike counts.
Same song, different verse. His slider location on the Rays shifted more to the bottom corner of the zone (keeping it low) and focused more on hugging the edge of the zone versus outside of it. Understandably this is a small sample. Some of this could easily be statistical noise, but all of the hints are there for how the Rays will coach him. The proof of concept can be seen with Zach Eflin.
Back to the key question I heard you asking in the intro, “Is it repeatable?” Zach Eflin has always been and now in the spotlight has proven himself a command master. George Kirby had the best command in the majors last year by location+ of 110 with a minimum of 120 IP, surprising to absolutely no one. Zach Eflin was second on that list with a score of 108. Where was Aaron Civale? He tied for 4th with Wheeler, Taillon, and Alcantara. He can locate pitches.
At a current ADP of around 210, there’s plenty of value to be squeezed out of this draft price. This is the same range as young starters like Pfaat and Pepiot who pose more volatility risk with less of a track record. Civale hasn’t always had a stellar track record for performance, but like Eflin, maybe he wasn’t utilized to maximize his talents. If I’ve said this once, I’ve said it a thousand times: if there is anyone I trust to get the most of a pitcher skillset, it’s the Tampa Bay Rays. With his history, I’m hesitant to project too many innings for him (hence the discount) but the upside is absolutely there, for now, I give him 140 IP with a 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a 9.5 K/9. Happy drafting!
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
