It’s the most intimidating and scariest time of the year in a dynasty offseason: free agency. Am I overvaluing guys? Am I missing out by being too cheap? How do I even bid?
There’s two free agency sections in this here league, a Qualifying Offer era and a regular free agency era. The qualifying offer starts on 12/7, which while I’m typing is tomorrow. I’m not 100% sure I have this right. An expiring contract for one offseason and one offseason only can have a qualifying offer attached to it. That offer is one year for 20 million, but can be bid up from this number. Just like the big boys who do these decisions for real, draft pick compensation is forfeited if you choose to bid on one of these players.
My decisions for expiring players was pretty simple. Garrett Cooper (1B) and SP Nathan Eovaldi to me are not worth 20 per season. I don’t think that they are worth that princely sum. They have been cut loose. Other guys that are available include:
Pablo Lopez
Willy Adames
Kyle Schwarber
Carlos Correa
Gerrit Cole
Brandon Woodruff (was extended right before the injury)
Max Fried
Joe Musgrove
Paul Goldschmidt
Ian Happ
As you can see, it’s like a depository for people who have a lot of value but do have warts. Fried, Musgrove, Correa have health issues. Happ is kinda boring. Schwarber is my guy, but you know his average isn’t great. Things like that force a player into the qualifying offer territory. The owner doesn’t want to just cut them loose, but wouldn’t be upset if someone paid over 20 per year for the guy.
As it stands, I have 33 million in cap space so I can take on a player here. My needs are 1B, SS, OF, and SP. There’s no way I’m springing for Correa or Willy Adames at that price, especially with Brooks Lee on my prospect roster coming up who will fill the spot ably and lead me to ultimate victory. I may put a bid in on Schwarber because he’s always a favorite of mine and it’s an OBP league, but that draft pick lost may just be a deal breaker. One of my goals in this league was to play out every part of it, from picks to draft to trades and also free agency. Losing a first round pick doesn’t fit that obviously. At this point, it looks like I’m sitting this part out, but it could of course change.
I sat out the bidding here. I only have 34 million in cap, and am wary to give up a draft pick. This may have been a mistake as every single guy was signed by someone else except for Brandon Woodruff, who was extended his QO right before it was known he’d miss the season. With free agency looking pretty weak, this was the easiest route to take to get talent.
Free Agency
In a week starts the regular free agency. I’ve been told by Mr. Yankee, who just told me his name is Mike, that free agency is overpriced and pretty weak. This tracks with what everyone else has said or insinuated. I have one guy I’m targeting, but have a price limit for him. My hypothesis is that free agency is great for a finishing piece to a contender, but not so much for long term sustainability.
I’ll keep you guys posted on this as it happens. I don’t want to talk about my targets because of competitive reasons but so much. I”m an idiot, but not that big of one (stop it.)
To give you a bit of perspective on the free agent class coming up, I’ll try to pick the best player from the group (not necessarily who I’d target, but the guy who will perform the best) and also a hilarious addition who will certainly not be bid upon.
C: Travis D’Arnaud; Meibrys Viloria (stop it, you haven’t heard of him either)
1B: Anthony Rizzo; Greg Bird
2B: Jeff McNeil; Corey Spangenberg and Robinson Cano still available
3B: Justin Turner; Jonathan Villar
SS: Tim Beckham; Franklin Barreto
OF: Eddie Rosario; Luis Gonzalez (Yes, I know there’s a lot of Luis Gonzalez in baseball lore. I’m choosing to think he’s the former D-Back MVP candidate from 2001)
SP: Max Scherzer/Justin Verlander; Dylan Bundy
RP: I’m not even going to lie. I don’t know who most of these guys are. I’ll have to do some reading here!
As you can see, there’s very little in high end talent on the regular free agency front. There are several names that we were once interested in, though, which made for a nice trip down memory lane. Based on what I’ve heard from several dawgs and cats from this league, the prices will be sky high. There’s no discount here; it’s like modern inflation in fantasy baseball form!
Interestingly to me and also confidence building, I remember all of these names and for a hot moment was probably stoked to own some of them as prospects. Man, remember the Dylan Bundy craze? When Franklin Barreto was a hot prospect? Jonathan Villar stealing 62 bags, then later netting 40 of them? Lesson learned about contract lengths and risk management I’m thinking. All these owners were excited for a hot moment and now they are just hot potatoes dropped in your lap. Very warm, those, but not really what you want.
Any the hoo, I’ll keep you guys posted on what I do, and some other moves too.
| C | Tyler Soderstrom | $590,000 |
| C | Nick Fortes | $690,305 |
| 1B | Darick Hall | $590,000 |
| 2B | Edouard Julien | $708,000 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | $16,514,060 |
| 3B | Alex Bregman | $24,050,000 |
| 3B | Brett Baty | $649,000 |
| MI | Zach McKinstry | $1,350,000 |
| UT | Marcell Ozuna | $6,150,000 |
| OF | Jurickson Profar | $12,200,000 |
| OF | Luis Robert Jr. | $10,156,400 |
| OF | Alek Thomas | $690,305 |
| OF | Yonathan Daza | $681,835 |
| OF | Mitch Haniger | 11,000,000 |
| SP | Kenta Maeda | $5,000,000 |
| SP | MacKenzie Gore | $826,000 |
| SP | Alex Wood | $5,500,000 |
| RP | Ian Gibaut | $826,000 |
| RP | Ryan Pressly | $9,000,000 |
| RP | Jose Leclerc | 3,774,400 |
| RP | Elvis Peguero | $828,000 |
| RP | Daniel Palencia | $590,000 |
| SP | Marcus Stroman | $18,500,000 |
| SP | Ryan Rolison | $100,000 |
| SP | Jose Suarez | $1,420,020 |
| P | Juan Then | $100,000 |
| RP | Ron Marinaccio | $590,000 |
| SP | Shane McClanahan | $2,966,600 |
| BN | Jean Segura | $11,700,000 |
| RP | Rafael Montero | $1,483,300 |
| RP | Michel Baez | $590,000 |
| P | Nick Nelson | $590,000 |
| RP | Tyler Kinley | $575,500 |
Key prospect bench: Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcantara, Ty Madden, Brooks Lee
