I wrote the title, Nick Pivetta, 2024 Fantasy Sleeper, and I began to howl. I was howling. I opened my door and looked up in the sky, blinding myself by the sun. I had to make sure it wasn’t night time or a full moon. I am not a werewolf, so I was howling because I wrote Nick Pivetta, 2024 Fantasy Sleeper. Since howling is not the reaction one should have when writing a sleeper post, I deleted it and wrote MacKenzie Gore, 2024 Fantasy Sleeper and stared at it. Since it didn’t elicit a howl, I think we’re good to move forward. See, a howl is too close to a woof, and you don’t need to be a wolf to know it, and now I sound like a child of Anne Rice and Dr. Seuss. Red fish, blue fish, one fish, too oafish, the creature pinched, cinched, Grinch’d. That’s Anne Rice-Seuss. Any hoo! I just couldn’t suggest you draft Nick Pivetta with reckless abandon as a fantasy sleeper, even though his Contact% was 12th in the league. See, a lack of contact, is a great thing for pitchers. If a hitter isn’t making contact, it perks up my nethers. So, I was perusing that. Ohtani? Great, but injury and you know he’s great. Blake Snell? Yeah, not a sleeper. Spencer Strider had a low contact percentage, but you know he’s not a sleeper. These are the best starters (or would be if healthy). Need to be looking for starters who might not be on your radars with a low contact percentage, which is also how I stumbled on MacKenzie Gore. So, what can we expect from MacKenzie Gore for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’ve rolled out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the MacKenzie Gore sleeper:
Since starting pitchers usually come into their own in the third year, which MacKenzie Gore is about to enter, allow me a brief detour, because I want to reacquaint everyone with what we thought about him not that long ago. Here’s what I said two years ago, “MacKenzie Gore could be greater than most fantasy number twos if he’s in the majors. That “if” is gonna be the pickle in this Vlasic battle of ‘Is he breaking camp with the team or no?’ Everything, and I am not overstating facts here, is beautiful about MacKenzie Gore’s pitching if he’s up. I’m no prospect hound. I rely on Hobbs or Itch, so I don’t know if Gore’s the 1st pitcher to have four pitches rating out as 60-grade, but Gore’s got it. I haven’t been pumped for a debut as I am for MacKenzie Gore in some time. If all goes as planned, he’s a number one fantasy ace as soon as 2022. Dudes and five non-dudes, am I overstating? I’m not. In his top 50 prospects for 2021 fantasy baseball, Prospect Itch put Gore 6th for starters. We’re talking about a guy who could have a 11.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 2-something ERA in his rookie year.” And that’s me quoting me! So, your takeaway might be, I might not be a werewolf, but you found where a woof is. Fine, he hasn’t panned out yet in a huge way, but pitchers take different amounts of time to develop. Tarik Skubal was right above MacKenzie Gore on that top 50 prospects list, and he’s about to enter a season where he will be an ace.
MacKenzie Gore had a K/9 and BB/9 of 10 and 3.8. Clearly, 10 K/9 is elite. 10 K/9 was 18th in the league. (Nick Pivetta was 4th with 11.5.) There’s no one in the top 18 you don’t want for fantasy. Out of the top 18 strikeout rate guys (besides Pivetta, naturally), the biggest headache might be Reid Detmers (10.2 K/9). With the 29th best Swinging Strike Rate, and the 32nd worst Contact%, it’s clear no one is making good contact off MacKenzie Gore. According to Statcast, the most similar pitcher to MacKenzie Gore was 2023 Blake Snell. Ya know, the NL Cy Young winner. Well, they both average 95 MPH on their fastball, and have terrible command, so I guess there’s that. Strikeouts aren’t everything (how dare I!), which is why Gore is going much later. His command is a bit of a mess. In the top 18 K/9 guys, there were others who had his walk rate or worse (Snell, Ohtani, Cease, Senga and Charlie Morton), and were able to be productive for fantasy. Clearly, his command can be a headache. So, can it be better? Short answer, yes. Long answer: Yesssssssssssssssss. Not enough? Okay.
In 2022, his BB% was 12% and last year it was 9.8%. MacKenzie Gore never really spent any real time in the minors, because he’s been so good. Most innings he saw in the minors was in 2019, when he had around a 8% BB%. Do you see what I’m hinting at? He’s still coming into his own, and his command can be better, and has been in the past. He only has 206 1/3 IP in the majors at 24 years of age. Don’t make me compare him to what Max Scherzer was doing at a similar age (Okay, fine! 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 4.12 ERA at 24). Gore’s xFIP last year was 4.11. He was burned big-time by homers allowed — 1.78 HR/9. Damage occurred almost exclusively vs. his 4-seamer. He allowed 17 homers on his 95 MPH speed ball. The year before, he allowed five on the same pitch. His run values on his fastball went from 6.9 to -5.5. That’s absurd. You’re telling me a guy who is getting better in all other areas just had a dogshizz fastball that averaged 95 MPH? A guy with the 16th best fastball based off his Stuff+ allows that many homers? Earth to Razzball reader, come in Razzball reader, it’s unlucky, more than it’s bad. If he allowed 10% HR/FB vs. 18.2, then he becomes a barely 4 ERA pitcher, and that’s neutral luck.
What else is there? Oh, he’s going after 300th overall in drafts. That’s right, a guy with borderline top 20 stuff, and potential for a top 10 K/9 is basically free in all drafts. I know steals are up with the pitch clock, but MacKenzie Gore, you are my fantasy sleeper for all leagues who is an insane steal. If he cuts his walk rate to 3.3 and his homers to 1 HR/9, which are both nothing to ask of a soon-to-be 25-year-old, he’s going to be a fantasy number three with possibility to get to the number two ceiling I spoke about two years ago. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give MacKenzie Gore projections of 8-10/3.83/1.33/177 in 161 IP with a chance for much more.
