I’ve always been fascinated by garage sales, Storage Wars, and Antique Roadshow. All have stories of people discovering treasure in what many assume to be trash. Some may be in plain sight while others were buried under something. A little cleaning and digging sometimes makes it all worth it, although the probabilities are low that winning lotto tickets are discovered. That doesn’t mean items of utility are lacking. This describes fantasy baseball waiver wires. League winners do emerge from time to time, but usually it is filled with trash and hot schmotatoes that Grey ends up eating for breakfast. There are also players who are just solid to provide a little something something, nothing more, nothing less. They don’t get Tony the Tiger to yell “Grreeeeaaaattttt“, but stats are stats. Matt Vierling of the Detroit Tigers has been on a heater over the last 10 games, slashing .324/.385/.647 with two home runs and eight RBI. He’s rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues and 10% in NFBC ones. Is there some bling to this Vierling?
Vierling is 27 years old, 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was selected in the fifth round of the 2018 MLB draft by the Philadelphia Phillies.
Throughout his minor league career, the strikeout rate never exceeded 20%. He didn’t walk much early on, but improved from 5.7% to over 10%. The ISO was all over the place, ranging from .097 to .299. He never hit double-digit home runs and stole 22 bases in 483 plate appearances in Single-A. He only spent three years in the minors before getting his shot in MLB.
With the Phillies in 2021, he received 77 plate appearances and hit two home runs while stealing two bases. The walk rate was 5.2% while the strikeout rate was 26%. The ISO was .155 but the BABIP was .420, which fueled a .324 batting average. In 2022, he accrued 357 plate appearances and hit six home runs while stealing seven bases. The walk rate ticked up to 6.4% while the strikeout rate decreased to 19.6%. The ISO was only .105, though.
Vierling was traded to Detroit in 2023 and hit 10 home runs with six stolen bases in 530 plate appearances with the Tigers. The walk rate was 8.3% while the strikeout rate was 21.1%. The ISO was .127.
I mentioned his 10-game heater in the intro, but Vierling’s season-long stats look decent this season. In 161 plate appearances, he’s hit five home runs with 23 RBI. The walk rate is only 4.3% while the strikeout rate is 21.7%. The ISO is a robust .185. The BABIP is .327 and he’s slashing .278/.311/.464.
Let’s dig in to see what’s changed and if things are sustainable.
The Statcast numbers look promising. The average exit velocity of 92.2 mph is a career-high. While the maxEV is a career-low, the launch angle of 16.2 degrees and barrel rate of 6.8% are career highs.
That batted ball data show that he’s hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls. The GB/FB of .8 is a career-low in the majors and first time under 1. There has been a shift in approach, as he’s now pulling the ball 39%. Last season, he was at 33.9% while being in the 30% range the prior two times in the majors.
The plate discipline numbers are fantastic. The swinging strike rate is at 7.3% and he’s never had a number in double digits. The contact rate in the zone is 89.7% while the overall contact rate is 83.5%. He’s been more aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone while also chasing fewer pitches. The 22.9% O-Swing% is a career-low and would place him as the ninth-best mark in all of baseball.
To begin the season, Vierling wasn’t starting on a regular basis and was often batting sixth or seventh in the lineup. He did hit leadoff many times as well, but was often utilized only against left-handed pitching. But then the playing time became more regular and he was given more plate appearances against right-handed pitching, hitting all over the top and middle of the lineup, never below fifth. In 102 plate appearances against righties, Vierling is batting .253 with four home runs, five walks, and 14 RBI. He’s struck out 24 times. In the most recent game, Vierling blasted two home runs, both off righties.
I like what I see with Vierling. The plate discipline is really good and he has some pop. While he has yet to steal a base this season, he’s in the 89th percentile for sprint speed, so I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that those will be coming. He’s being given the opportunity to play and is batting in the upper portion of the lineup. He also has dual-eligibility at 3B and OF. And he’s free!
