I went to look at Royce Lewis on the Player Rater for last year just to see where he ended up. Last year is not this year — Thank you, Mr. Calendar! — but he ended up at 321st overall last year. Between Will Benson and Michael Conforto. I know, I know, it was only 58 games. He’s a top prospect. He just came up, and hit, so he’s going to move up in the rankings year over year. That’s just a natural ascension. (By the by, this is the first time ascension has ever been used outside of church. Amen.) So, a top five prospect comes on the scene, does well and shoots up the ranks–Wait a minute, I’m being told Royce Lewis was 39th on the Itch’s top 50 prospects last year. That’s weird. Just below Oswald Peraza? Hmm…Well, he had multiple injuries, so let’s go back another year and see how high he is. He must be a top five prospect then! Well, close. Top six. He was below Corbin Carroll, Oneil Cruz, Jordan Walker, CJ Abrams and Riley Greene. Well, all of those guys had better seasons than Royce Lewis last year, except Riley Greene and Oneil Cruz. Oneil Cruz was a top 50 pick the previous year, and had a fluky injury. So, I could see Lewis falling in the 120 range of picks and just behind Jordan Walker, and around Riley Greene–Oh my God! Royce Lewis is being drafted in some leagues before CJ Abrams? Lewis is going in the top 50 overall? Okay, what’s going on? Is the hype machine that is usually on Byron Buxton now focused on Royce Lewis? Speaking of which, the Twins’ entire lineup is Dream A Little Dream. So, what can we expect from Royce Lewis for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
PSYCHE! Before we get into the post, wanted to announce that we’re doing a 15-team, auction draft next Tuesday (3/27) that starts at 6 PM EST. It is a FAST auction, not SLOW. You must be present, and it’ll likely take 4 hours total. It is $150 to join. Rules are here. To signup click this link. Anyway II, the Royce Lewis overrated post:
Mr. Get Dough, as Drakeo the Ruler once called himself, is how we all want to be in drafts. We want to get value from that fantasy fake dollar dollar, baby baby. If Royce Lewis is going in the top 50, he’d have to do what Gunnar Henderson did last year: 100/28/82/.255/10 in 560 ABs. I hate to be the naysayer who also cackles but Ha! I mean, HA! I am going to take myself out of the equation, and show you projections from Steamer/Razzball: 75/25/80/.267/12 in 502 ABs. Close, I guess. That line is a guy who will return around the 75th overall value. Oh, there’s no way he’s getting to 502 ABs either, but it’s a bit more realistic. I realistically gave him 431 ABs in my projections. Honestly, that might even be optimistic. He feels like Luis Robert Jr. going into last year. That might’ve raised your antennae like you’re Orbitty from The Jetsons, because last year Luis Robert Jr. was a schmohawk of mine that didn’t work out, i.e., he did work out well for drafters. I’m sorry, I will always fall on the side of going for safety with top hitters. If you’re drafting a top hitter with a shorter track record, they better have some track record. Nolan Jones was top 120 overall last year in a partial season vs. Lewis’s 321st overall, and Jones has Coors. Spencer Steer was 70th overall last year and has Great American Smallpark; same with McLain (who was 181st last year). Lewis hasn’t reached 400 ABs since 2019, when he was in High-A and AA. It’s now four straight years he’s barely been on the field. Take out 2020 and we’re still at three years and a goofy amount of IL time.
So, that was a long time spent on playing time, because I am unfortunately left with that big takeaway when I see Royce Lewis’s projections. He’s being drafted 30 picks before Oneil Cruz and 20 picks before Jazz Chisholm Jr. They are both priced normally, maybe even a bit low, but why are they getting docked for injury concerns when Royce Lewis is synonymous with injury concerns? Is it just that people haven’t been burned yet? After this year, you will absolutely be burned. Royce Lewis might be great, and maybe he finally puts it together like Luis Robert Jr. last year, but Royce Lewis’s price tag stamps him a schmohawk.
