Introduction
Welcome back, Razzfaithful. Another year, another fresh January deep dive for you. This first post of the season is usually when I lay out my big locked-in pitcher pick of the year. The last few have featured breakouts from 2021 Joe Musgrove, 2022 Nestor Cortes, and 2023 Zach Eflin. This year though, a little more in the spotlight, but just as much a believer. In the mystical realms of baseball lore, where legends are born, the enigmatic figure of Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes center stage to a triumphal score written by Nobuo Uematsu. As we embark on the journey into the story of this decorated Japanese pitcher, it’s important to note that he might be the best pitcher from Japan you’ve never heard of (until this year). And arguably the world? The Dodgers were willing to go all-in and give him the highest-grossing pitching contract for $325M over 12 years… so behold!
My friend and colleague EverywhereBlair gave you his synopsis of Yamamoto here. While I can agree he gave you a good summary of the challenges ahead of him, I would be remiss if I didn’t plant a flag in opposition to the conclusion. He is attempting to compare him to the mean; whereas, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is anything but that. And let me be clear, I am focusing on THIS YEAR. Not dynasty, redraft value.
Yamamoto, standing at a modest 5’10” and weighing 176 lbs, may not fit the conventional mold of a dominating pitcher. Yet, his accolades speak volumes – three consecutive Sawamura Awards (Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award), the first player ever to win three pitching Triple Crowns consecutively, and also a three-time winner of the Japanese MVP. All by the age of 25.
He is easily the most polished and decorated pitcher EVER to come from Japan. As a pure pitcher, he’s better than Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani, and Kodai Senga. He’s also a better command artist than any of his predecessors like Tanaka and Maeda. He’s done things on the mound all of them have not. He’s built different.
Mechanics and Methods
Part of his success is due to his unique delivery with minimal moving parts that allow him to control his wide array of pitches more consistently. And with that, less violent action helps maintain his stamina and durability. In game 6 of the NPB World Series (Japan Series) Yamamoto pitched a complete game gem of 9 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, while throwing 138 pitches… at the end of the season.
Last year, he had a 68.5% strike rate in NPB that would have put him 5th among qualified MLB starters between Joe Ryan and Spencer Strider. As I said his unique form helps him stay more consistent and makes him more durable than the average pitcher his size. Why is that?
He has modeled his mechanics after Olympic javelin throwers. For real. It gives him simplified mechanics that are more repeatable and puts less strain on his elbow. Some of his workout routine is actually throwing javelins:
He does a lot of work on his core and flexibility like Marcus Stroman, a similar size of 5’7” 180 lbs, to stay limber. Stroman threw over 200 IP in his age 25 and 26 seasons (Yamamoto’s current age). Here’s a look at some of Yamamoto’s routine:
This is even more worthy of note because the Dodgers have also hired his personal trainer, biomechanics expert Osamu Yada, directly to the Dodgers training staff. Not only is that good for his continued durability but I’m curious how it could help others in the rotation. Due to his unique training methods and routine, looking through his career, you will not see that he missed any length of time on the mound due to injury. He has yet to be placed on the injured reserve in any professional season. Color me a believer.
Pitching Breakdown
We covered his unique accomplishments and his unique mechanics and methods; now, let’s look at his unique pitches. He features 3 plus-plus pitches that he commands around the zone well, and in truth that’s been all he has needed in Japan. However, he owns up to 6 pitches. Let’s break down the 5 pitch mix we’re likely to see in 2024 for the Dodgers.
Fastball – 48%, 95-97 mph
Yamamoto’s four-seam fastball is his primary pitch used nearly half the time and easily his best pitch. Averaging just over 95 mph, his fastball plays up in the zone with good carry. The lower release point due to his height and 3/4 arm slot makes it a unique pitch that explodes at the top of the zone. Yamamoto’s release height of around 5.5 feet and an average induced vertical break (IVB) or “rise” of almost 18 inches produce that deadly rising fastball that all MLB teams covet. But… on top of that, it has 14 inches of arm-side run as well. I looked high and low, no one else has the same combo. Luzardo’s comes close but with about 20% less movement. He also has a sinker with a similar break but more drop.
Splitter – 26%, 90 mph
Yamamoto’s splitter is a nightmare for batters, particularly effective against both left and right-handed hitters. With a .178 opponents’ OBP against lefties and a remarkable .106 OBA against righties, it becomes his go-to strikeout pitch. Looking at his WBC pitch data, his splitter comps very closely to Shohei Ohtani’s, and we all know how good that has been. The splitter averages around 90 mph, but Yamamoto’s ability to change its speed and shape makes it hard to track. With a 77% ground ball rate and a 40% whiff rate, the splitter is a very tough pitch to handle.
Curveball – 16%, 77 mph
Yamamoto’s curveball is a thing of beauty, dropping out of the sky for strikes and generating plenty of whiffs. Thrown with the unique Ginoza grip, showcasing the back of his hand towards the plate, he then pushes or flicks the ball with his thumb, giving the pitch a high spin rate. Averaging 77 mph, he can manipulate the speed and shape of this pitch as well, taking some off or throwing it harder when needed. He can get chases below the zone or steal strikes in the zone. Regarding comparison, it is similar in drop and break to Wainwright and Rich Hill’s with more velocity.
Cutter – 8%, 92 mph
Yamamoto’s cutter is thrown more to right-handed batters than lefties, often running it inside on their hands. His least impressive pitch, I see him likely not to utilize it much and instead opting more for the slider…
Slider – 2%, 85 mph
Yamamoto’s slider, adds the only thing missing from his movement tree: lateral movement. While rarely thrown, he locates the pitch incredibly well with the 10 inches of break it generates. Ten inches of break and only about two inches of drop it’s more of a sweeper than a gyro slider. This is a great complement to the movement on his fastball and I could see the Dodgers making it an asset for retiring righty batters should he need to diversify his sequencing more.
Comparing to Compatriots
Here are the other elite arms that come over from Japan and the average of their last 3 years in NPB, along with Yamamoto. Yes, I did not include Ohtani because his pitching history was a bit different with more variation in exposure.
Here are each of those pitchers (minus Yamamoto) in their first season in the MLB:
This reinforces the common thread among elite NPB pitchers I outlined in my Kodai Senga sleeper post last preseason, here. The TLDR: great pitchers making the transition have experienced continued success with a rise in their NPB K-rate, BB-rate, and HR-rate. I think we can then expect more of the same for Yamamoto, while some of the same faults he is at less risk of. So what can we expect based on these samples?
Conclusion
If I had to draw a comp, I’d say he’s a mix between a harder-throwing Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka with nastier stuff. He easily has the most life on his fastball compared to everyone else referenced in this post. His diverse and unpredictable arsenal, honed in the crucible of NPB success, positions him as the premier pitcher to watch this season. Other elite pitchers have made the transition well, and Yamamoto (with all his accomplishments) will be the next. Have you ever seen a “prospect” with 80-grade command? You are about to.
I see him achieving something in the range of 170 IP in his first full season on an MLB pitching schedule and posting a pitching line around 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 with (dare I say) a chance for more. Earned runs are always the hardest to predict, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he posted a sub-3 line with his track record. And with the stacked Dodgers lineup featuring a newly signed Ohtani to support him, I see plenty of wins available for him like the 16 Maeda posted for the Dodgers in his first season. That’s worth the price of admission currently around the 4/5 turn in NFBC ADP. Sign me up.
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
