No Major League Baseball team has played more than 13 games as of March 6, and none of them have actually counted for anything, but what else are we going to use to evaluate who we need for our fantasy baseball squads?
In the aggregate, Spring Training stats are mostly meaningless, but things like playing time, usage, and lineup spots can be useful information. Players who are buzzy that end up with tremendous or terrible springs are also hard to ignore.
There are still several big names yet to debut in Spring Training such as Blake Snell, J.D. Martinez, and Jordan Montgomery. But most players are several games into 2024 Spring Training, so this piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall in the first two weeks of Spring Training games.
Spring Training Risers
Ezequiel Tovar (SS), Colorado Rockies – NFBC ADP: 191.9
Ezequiel Tovar’s 153-game rookie season was largely a disappointment. A .253/.287/.408 slash for someone playing in Colorado leaves a lot to be desired, especially for a top prospect, but there were signs of life in the second half of 2023. Tovar had six bombs and seven steals post-All Star Break, and now that impressive bat is on display again in Spring Training.
Through 16 spring at bats through Wednesday, Tovar was hitting a crazy .438 with a 1.319 OPS which includes two homers and seven RBI. He doesn’t have a stolen base yet, but that’s because three of his seven hits have gone for extra bases. Steamer projects Tovar for an improved .259/.302/.418 with 16 homers and 12 steals. All of those would be improvements from 2023.
At just 22 years old, there is a lot of growth still in Tovar’s game, and if some if that comes faster than expected in 2024, he might be the most valuable Middle Infield fantasy player this season.
Bailey Ober (SP), Minnesota Twins – NFBC ADP: 149.7
Some of Bailey Ober’s numbers look a little wonky after his first two starts of the spring. He has a sparkling 2.08 ERA in those games, but has allowed five runs in 4.1 innings (four of them unearned). A series of miscues and errors did him in during a game, but the things that are within Ober’s control have been dominant. He has just a 1.15 WHIP across his time on the mound, but the strikeouts are what have been even more impressive.
Ober is tied four fifth overall with 10 strikeouts this spring, but his have come in 4.1 innings, while the others above him all have at least eight innings pitched. That’s an encouraging sign after Ober’s strikeouts per nine innings jumped from 22% in 2022 to over 25% in 2023. Ober was in the 91st percentile in chase rate last season as he has learned to master his wicked changeup as a strikeout pitch.
If Ober is set to level up again with his strikeouts in 2024, his ADP around 150 will look foolish by the time summer rolls around.
Jackson Holliday (2B), Baltimore Orioles – NFBC ADP: 184.7
Twenty-year-old phenom Jackson Holliday is fighting a battle on two fronts as Spring Training lumbers on. First, he is fighting to make the team at 20 years old, less than two years after being drafted in the first round. Second, if he makes the team, he is fighting players like Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo for the starting gig at second base.
If his spring stats are any indication of what will happen with his future, things are really looking up for Matt Holliday’s nep0-baby.
With 21 at-bats in seven spring games, the Orioles are giving Holliday every chance he can to show them something impressive. So far, he has delivered. He is hitting .333/.364/.619 with two doubles, two triples, and a steal. With each passing day, it appears Holliday will make this team, or be up within just a couple of weeks of the start of the season. He is the future. Not Mateo or Urias. And for a team with World Series aspirations, the future is now.
Spring Training Fallers
Jordan Walker (OF), St. Louis Cardinals – NFBC ADP: 106.8
How shall we describe Jordan Walker’s debut season in 2023? Uneven? Disappointing? Embarrassing? Misunderstood? Whatever you want to call it, he did not meet the lofty expectations that eventually had him being drafted in the seventh round in 2023 draft. Managers are trying to buy back in for 2024, as he has been creeping towards pick number 100 in NFBC drafts, but his spring is not doing him any favors to put doubts to rest.
There are 50 players in 2024 Spring Training that have at least two plate appearances per game their team has played. Walker is one of them, but his .528 OPS this spring ranks 44th. He has struck out eight times in 18 at bats and has yet to homer. It’s possible this is all small sample noise, and Walker isn’t going to hit .167 for the season. But until he shows some of the promise (any of the promise!) he displayed during the first month of 2023, I’m going to let him be someone else’s headache.
Joe Musgrove (SP), San Diego Padres – NFBC ADP: 105.3
Right next to Jordan Walker in NFBC ADP is ol’ reliable Joe Musgrove. He has had an ERA between 2.95 and 3.85 for four straight seasons. He has at least 10 wins in each of the last four full seasons. His ground ball rate is always 45%. But so far during Spring Training, he has been the antithesis of reliable, instead looking absolutely abysmal.
Musgrove has a horrific first two starts so far in spring, only able to muster 1.2 innings combined in those outings. He has allowed eight earned runs and hasn’t logged one strikeout yet. On one hand, Musgrove has said he is “confident” things are going to turn around. On the other, he says that his work is “a little but of trial and error right now.” The Padres only have 13 days until they play a game that counts against the Dodgers in Korea. Musgrove is scheduled to be on the mound for one of those games.
Right now, he doesn’t appear even close to being ready.
Nathaniel Lowe (1B), Texas Rangers – NFBC ADP: 204.3
Nate Lowe took a major step back between 2022 and 2023. In ’22 he slashed .302/.358/.492 with 27 home runs. In ’23 that plummeted to .262/.360/.414 and only 17 homers despite 80 more plate appearances in 2023. His playoffs weren’t any better. Lowe was just .203/.267/.362 in the postseason, becoming a sort of “in spite of him” figure in the Texas Rangers winning the World Series. What made matters worse in 2023 is that it wasn’t like Lowe was unlucky. He had an above average BABIP (.329) and walked 12.8% of the time. His flyballs were the same as ’22 and so was his average exit velocity.
Now, Spring Training for Lowe seems to be just a continuation of his postseason struggles. Across seven games, Lowe is slashing .167/.211/.333 with no home runs and seven strikeouts in 18 at bats. He has three doubles and it’s an extremely small sample, so no reason to jump overboard just yet. But with Lowe burning fantasy managers last season and now off to a slow start in 2024, his ADP is likely to keep falling farther past the 200 mark for the rest of March.
