Welcome back thee noblest fantastical pursuers. This is Knights Of The RazzTable. Each week I’ll invite some friends to give takes on the keys to an ADP range. We start with the start. ADP 1-15. Joining me this week is our very own MarmosDad and Cubs connoisseur Sara Sanchez. We’re back to having a sure-fire, consensus 1.01 in Ronald Acuna. Health is just about the only thing that could hold back that absolute production monster. So what do we do if you forgot to bride your commish with booze for the top pick?
Q: After Acuna, who do you think has the best chance to be a stud in five categories?
MarmosDad: Taking the guy who sits at #2 ADP behind Acuna kind of feels like cheating here, but I’m fully in on believing that Bobby Witt is for real. Outside of Carroll and Julio, Witt is the youngest player in the first round and is still well in front of what should be his peak years. He made some serious gains in contact over the second half. The power and speed are elite, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 45/45 .280 season as soon as this year. When a young player boosts his BB% (5.4 to 6.3), cuts his K% (20.5 to 13.5), and improves 40+ points in OBP (.300 to .343) from the first to second half…let’s just say he should be a fixture in Round 1 for a long time.
Sara: I think it’s Julio Rodríguez, who put up a 30/30 season last year at 22 years old. He’s being projected for another 30/30 campaign in 2024 by every projection system on FanGraphs, and frankly, I think that might be light. His sprint speed and hard hit rate were 96th percentile last season according to Statcast. He hits second for the Mariners and should get plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs. Most of those projection systems also see him scoring at least 100 runs, and as long as his teammates can get on base, Julio can drive them in. Last season he stole 37 bases in 47 attempts for a 78.7% stolen base success rate and I don’t see any reason he won’t run at least as much next season. He also got off to a slow start in 2023 hitting .249 with 13 home runs in 397 plate appearances in the first half before absolutely cranking in the second half for a .308/.363/.578 slash line with 19 home runs in just 317 plate appearances. Admittedly, he plays in a much less friendly park for hitting than Acuña, but honestly, I think that might be the only obstacle to J-Rod putting up a 40/40 campaign.
My Take: This is a fun debate because there are no wrong answers. Both JRod and Witt had their ups and downs in 2023. Both of these young gents could absolutely take another step forward in their very young careers. They also have very solid floors with how hot their hot streaks tend to be. If you find yourself outside the top 3 you’ll likely have some ground to cover.
Q: If you find yourself picking in the middle to end of round one what category(s) are you prioritizing as the elite five-toolers are gone?
MarmosDad: If I end up with any draft slot from 10-15, I think I’m looking to insulate with clear injury history and power/contact types first. With steals being so available now, I’d feel comfortable starting with a Soto/Jose Ramirez (ADP 12/15 respectively). It crosses off my 3B slot too, which is always nice to not have to worry about later in a draft. A Judge/Soto would work too, (11/12), but Judge’s injury history makes me a bit more leery about using that first round pick on him.
Sara: Looking at the backend of NFBC ADP since Jan. 1, I actually think the two players I’m most likely to target are the two players who are most likely to be elite five-toolers in Trea Turner and José Ramírez, specifically because of that upside. However, that seems like a remarkably unfair way to dodge your question, so presuming they (and Fernando Tatís Jr., who I see as another five-tool guy with way more risk) are also off the board, I’m likely looking for a masher who has 40 home run potential and an elite hit tool that can carry me in batting average. Juan Soto is the player I like most at the backend of the first round for that. He hit .275 last season with 35 home runs in a down year for the Padres, and I think he’s positioned for a monster year in New York with free agency looming. He’s currently slated to hit in front of Aaron Judge (another guy who I like for the high average, high power, play) which should offer him plenty of protection to do damage. And while I understand that projections are conservative by nature, I just don’t believe he’s only going to hit one more home run moving from PetCo Park to Yankee Stadium. Although, for the record, I like Freddie Freeman in the exact middle of this round more than every guy I just named.
My Take: Some common names crop up here in JRam and Soto. When it comes to the hitter pool you’ll find into the end of the first will depend on where your league drafts elite SPs. The back half of the first is still settling. I’m pretty happy with any of the names mentioned after 10 but something special feels like it could happen with the Soto+Judge lineup in the Bronx.
Q: A first round bust can be the hardest thing to overcome in fantasy. Is there a player you’re avoiding due to potential risk?
MarmosDad: Every year the first rounders seem so solid…until they’re not. As far as actual risk, I think it’s tough to hammer in Trea Turner as a surefire 1st round return on investment this year. He corrected course after a rough first half in 2023, but you want a full 162 of elite production out of these top guys if you can. I mentioned a guy like Aaron Judge and that injury history earlier, so I could see reaching for a guy with a better injury track record in the early second round if I have one of those late (13-15) draft slots.
Sara: It’s actually a little heartbreaking for me to write this because I love this player and watching him play baseball brings me an incredible amount of joy. However, I just can’t take Shohei Ohtani coming off of a second Tommy John surgery in the first round, especially since he only has UT eligibility. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, Ohtani’s worst offensive season of his career was in 2019 after he came back from his first Tommy John. Now, that “down” year for Ohtani was a .286/.343/.505 slashline with a wRC+ of 120, not too shabby for a worst season in the majors. But, he only hit 18 home runs in 425 plate appearances that season (four fewer than the 22 he hit in 367 plate appearances in 2018). Plus, we all just watched Bryce Harper struggle through a bit of a power outage after he returned from the same surgery last season. Harper hit five home runs in his first 318 plate appearances for Philadelphia last season. I’m reluctant to take any UT only player in the early rounds of a draft, but taking one who has some big injury question marks is just too big of a risk for me in the first round. I’d much rather pass on Ohtani and take Ramírez, Yordan Álvarez, Harper, Matt Olson, or Corey Seager, who all go after Ohtani according to NFBC ADP since Jan. 1st.
My Take: There certainly seem to be some potential land mines in the top 15. We’ve gotten so used to Trea Turner’s name in the mid-first that it feels like a very safe pick to our hard-wired brains. It’s hard to know what to make of Turner’s tale of two halves. When it comes to Shohei, the Dodgers may look to protect their long-term investment knowing they have talent aplenty.
We pour so much energy into who our first round pick will be. My parting words are to remember the build style and how that player’s profile sets you up are just as important as the players themselves. Check as many boxes as you can while taking on limited risk. Until next week fantasy friends.
