Like Jesus, I often seek out the downtrodden and outcasts that populate the fantasy streets. We are both Sons after all. But this space is not limited to the less fortunate. I show no bias or discrimination towards race, age, production, weight, height, team affiliation, batting stance, throwing motion, curvature of the hat bill, use of sunglasses, batting gloves, sock length, amount of bling shown, or language spoken. Sometimes I just feel the need to shower praise upon a player because something leaps off the screen like the tongue of a chameleon latching onto lunch. And I give thanks to the Great Grey for allowing me to write about whatever and whomever. Whoever? Good thing no one reads these pieces.
This week’s OMT is dedicated to Matt Chapman of the San Francisco Giants.
Chapman is 31 years old, 6-foot, 215 pounds, and bats from the right side. The Oakland Athletics selected him in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft. He spent three years in the minors before joining the big club, where he was a staple in the lineup for four years. Chapman was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, spent two seasons there then signed a one-year deal with the Giants prior to this season.
Throughout his minor league career, the walk rate was high, but so was the strikeout rate. The power was robust, hitting 23 and 29 home runs in Single-A and Double-A. He displayed a glimmer of stealing prowess but only had a high of seven in a season. The batting average was a drain from the get-go, languishing in the .250 range.
When he became a full fledged member of the Athletics, Chapman was accruing over 600 plate appearances a season and hitting around 25 home runs a season. In 2019, he sent 36 into the seats, scored 101 runs, and drove in 91. While he continued to post double-digit walk rates, the strikeout rate exploded into the mid-30% range, and the ISO started to dip as he approached 30 years old.
This season, the walk rate is 11.3%, strikeout rate is 23.9% and the ISO is .182. The slash last season was .240/.330/.424. Remarkably, the slash is .242/.334/.424 so far this season.
The average exit velocity is at 92.6 mph, slightly lower than the 93.5 mph from last season, but still above the career average of 92.2 mph. He’s hitting a few more ground balls and fewer fly balls, but the HR/FB is still at 12.1%. He’s chasing a few more pitches outside the strike zone (23.1%), but the contact rates have dramatically improved (first time over 80% since 2019) and the swinging strike rate is at 9.2%, the first time under 10% in five seasons.
But this piece is not about the hitting. It’s about the stolen bases. Chapman has 12 this season. He had a total of 11 in seven MLB seasons. While he was in Oakland, the team was near the bottom in stolen base attempts. Toronto was 20th and 19th in attempts as a team when he was there. San Francisco is dead last this season, and they were 30th last season as well.
I never ever ever ever ever ever thought Chapman had speed, but then I looked at his Statcast page. He’s in the 88th percentile for sprint speed at 28.8 ft/s. WHAT??!! This has to be some kind of error or the matrix is messing with me. Then I checked his historical sprint speed – 28.7 in 2017 and 28.5 last season.
Chapman is 55th on the Razzball Player Rater up to this point in the season. The Rest of Season Player Rater has him at 226th, so the bot likely isn’t buying into the stolen base prowess. I get it since this seems like an outlier scenario and is not likely to continue. But, but, but….he has legitimate speed! It’s not like he’s Prince Fielder-esque, lugging around a 275-pound frame with a 12th percentile sprint speed.
