Gavin Lux is not really an up-and-coming player in the sense that he first made his Major League debut in 2019 at the age of 21. But Lux, a former top prospect, is an example of a player needing time to figure out how to succeed. It took a lot longer than expected, but he is finally playing up to his potential and is an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.
Drafted out of high school in 2016 as the 20th overall pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers, Gavin Lux quickly rose through the Dodgers’ system and soon entered the watchful eye of dynasty baseball owners.
In 2019 he was ranked as the 40th overall prospect by Baseball America and MLB ranked him at No. 70. In 2020, he shot to the top of the pre-season prospects rankings as he was ranked 4th by Baseball America, 2nd by MLB and 3rd by Baseball Prospectus.
The success he had in the minors did not carry over to the majors as he struggled on the field each and every season. Then last season, with the starting shortstop job all but handed to him, he didn’t play at all after tearing an ACL running the bases during a spring training game.
Entering the season the expectations for Lux were not great, and the start of the season showed why expectations were low as he got off to a very slow start for Los Angeles. But since the All-Star break, Lux has been the player everyone was expecting to see since his debut in 2019. After years of struggling, Lux has finally turned things around.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 75 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 2 | .240 | .305 | .400 |
| 2020 | 63 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 1 | .175 | .246 | .349 |
| 2021 | 335 | 81 | 49 | 7 | 46 | 4 | .242 | .328 | .364 |
| 2022 | 421 | 116 | 66 | 6 | 42 | 7 | .276 | .346 | .399 |
| 2024 | 359 | 91 | 45 | 10 | 45 | 4 | .253 | .312 | .398 |
| CAREER | 1,253 | 317 | 180 | 28 | 150 | 18 | .253 | .324 | .387 |
After signing with the Dodgers for more than $2,000,000, Gavin Lux was sent to Rookie ball and he faired well in 56 games, slashing .296/.376/.399 as an 18-year-old. While he struggled the next season, his first full season as a professional, he destroyed minor league pitching in 2018 and 2019 as he gained more strength and used his legs to drive the ball.
In 2018 at the High-A and Double-A levels, he slashed .324/.399/.514 with 15 homers, 57 RBI, and 13 steals. In 2019 at Double-A and Triple-A, he was even better. He slashed .347/.421/.607 and hit 26 homers while driving in 76 runs and stealing 10 bases.
But the production he showed in the minors has never carried over with the Dodgers. His best season at the plate came in 2022 when he hit .276 with an OBP of .346. But Lux was more concerned with making contact and hitting line drives, resulting in a .399 slugging percentage that year.
Then came 2023 when he suffered the torn ACL that forced him to miss the entire season. While he returned to camp fully healthy, Lux was still not driving the ball. According to him, he was taking a two-strike approach on nearly every pitch
2024 Splits
| Split | G | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 1st Half | 78 | 3 | 24 | .213 | .267 | .295 |
| 2nd Half | 31 | 7 | 21 | .356 | .421 | .663 |
Flailing at the Plate
That approach was not working at all. As you can see above, Gavin Lux was horrible at the plate during the first half, slashing .213/.267/.295. It was just a continuation of what was going wrong on the major league level.
In 2021 he had an average launch angle of 11.3% and a 40.2 Hard Hit%. In 2022 those numbers fell to 6.8% and 39.8%. This season, recovering from the knee injury further played a part in his first half struggles.
He simply wasn’t confident in fully using his legs to generate the power he needed. So instead, he was happy to just try to make contact and hit a single to the opposite field. But as the months progressed, the knee was feeling stronger and stronger.
Good Trip Home…Leading to Results
At the All-Star Break, Gavin Lux went back home to Wisconsin and worked out with his uncle, Augie Schmidt, a longtime hitting coach. What Lux realized was he basically wasn’t doing what made him successful, which was to attack the ball and be aggressive at the plate early in the count.
That aggressiveness has paid off at the plate and Lux is now the hitter many expected to see years ago.
Since the break, he has a slash line of .356/.421/.663. According to Baseball Savant, his average competitive swing was at 70.6 mph before the All-Star Break. Since the break, it is above 72 mph. Meanwhile, his average EV has gone from 87.9 mph to over 90 mph. Before the break, Lux had an OPS of .562. Since then, he has a 1.085 OPS to raise his overall OPS to .710 this year. Not a great number overall, but miles and miles ahead of where it was in early July.
The Future
Gavin Lux has always had the ability to succeed at the MLB level. But for whatever reason, he got away from attacking the ball to just trying to make contact.
That mindset has changed and we all have seen the results. Yes, he is on an unbelievable run right now where he is hitting everything hard and far. The .356 batting average over the last 31 games entering Friday is likely not going to last. But I don’t see him suddenly falling off the cliff and go back to pre-All-Star break levels. He was a .300 hitter in the minors and should be able to be close to that level going forward – this year and beyond.
There has been one “consequence” to his decision to finally be more aggressive at the plate. During this current run, his strikeout rate is 25.4%, an increase of 5.3% compared to before the break. But while the strikeout rate has increased, so too has the walk rate, going from 6.8% to 8.8%. While Lux is being more aggressive, he is doing so within the strike zone and not going after every pitch.
I was able to recently add Lux to my roster in one of my auction dynasty leagues and got into a bidding war with two other owners. I won the auction, and I did so with the goal of not only helping my team the rest of this season but to have him on my roster next year and beyond.
Going forward, I think he is at least a 20 homer, 80 RBI player. I don’t think he is going to add a lot of steals, despite the fact he entered pro ball with above average speed. That part of his game appears to be on the backburner at this point. But I’m not too worried about that. I love the production now and fully expect it to continue.
