Welcome back to the fourth installment of the Fantasy Baseball Dynasty rankings. As we count down toward the top group, we first hit the players ranked 150-126.
As we get closer to the more coveted players, the breakdown of this group is logically different from last week’s overall group. The biggest change is the age of this grouping skews younger, with 19 players in their 20s, including seven who are 24 years old or younger. Here is a look at this week’s players:
- 6 players between the ages of 30-34
- 12 players between the ages of 25-29
- 7 players between the ages of 20-24
- 8 infielders
- 6 starting pitchers
- 6 outfielders/DH
- 5 catchers
The one position that stands out is the number of catchers. Some owners will avoid catchers like the plague. There are a lot of good, young catchers in the majors, so why avoid catchers if you are going to have to start them? And in two catcher leagues, there is no way you can ignore them. In fact, you can make that a position of strength if you snag two young catchers who will produce for the next five years.
And now my weekly reminder: if a top prospect hasn’t reached the majors yet, they won’t be in these rankings. Itch has been running down the top prospects per team and will continue his great work. No need for me to repeat what he says.
Now on to the Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 150-126…
150-146
*Ages as of April 1, 2024
Heavy Hitters
Marcel Ozuna and Jorge Soler are never going to be confused with a real defensive outfielder. But who cares? This is fantasy baseball, so just give me hitters – and that is what these two players do well. They hit the ball hard and far.
Ozuna, who only played two games in the field for the Braves last season, hit a career-high 40 homers and rebounded well from an underwhelming 2022 campaign. The homers shouldn’t be a surprise as Ozuna was ranked in the 87th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg. EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%. Those rankings are basically equal to what he did during his 2017 All-Star campaign in Miami when he hit 37 homers and drove in 124. Ozuna will continue to hit for several more years.
The only real difference between Ozuna and Soler is that Soler at least sees some time out in the field, appearing in 32 games in right field for the Marlins last season. Other than that, Soler is similar to Ozuna. He hit 36 homers last year and his 162-game average is 32 and his career slugging percentage is .467 – the same as Ozuna’s. His xwOBA, xSLG, Avg. EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% all ranked in the 81st percentile or higher, and his BB% of 11.4 ranked in the 83rd percentile.
The Pitchers
Dylan Cease should be better than he is, at least when you look at his “stuff.” His fastball velo ranks in the 77th percentile while his Whiff% ranks in the 84th percentile and K% ranks in the 77th percentile. For his career, he has a K/9 rate of 10.8. All that should add up to a pitcher who routinely is a top Cy Young candidate, like Cease was in 2022 when he finished second in the voting. But that season seems to be the outlier. Cease can strike people out, but he also walks a ton of batters with a career 4.0 BB/9 rate. His WHIP last season was 1.418 and for his career, it is 1.305. For him to actually reach the level he should in 2022 consistently, he needs to cut down on those walks.
I really like Edward Cabrera, despite coming off a season with a 4.24 ERA and 6.0 BB/9 rate. He did, however, increase his K/9 rate from 9.4 in 2022 to 10.7 this past season while keeping his H/9 rate to a decent 7.0. You can debate his ranking here, but not the fact that he is a keeper with a very high upside. When you look at his StatCast numbers, they show a pitcher with above average ability in nearly every category. Like Cease, Cabrera’s Achilles heel right now is his lack of command as he walked an astonishing 6.0 batters per nine innings.
If you are looking for a pitcher who will rack up high strikeout numbers, Jordan Montgomery is not your man. He has a career K/9 rate of 8.4. What Montgomery does well is limit base runners. His career BB/9 rate is 2.5 with a career ERA of 3.68. He isn’t a sexy pitcher to have on your staff, but he won’t hurt your numbers, and that is a valuable pitcher to have.
145-141
The Catchers
Ryan Jeffers didn’t have an eye-popping number of homers (14), but that is because he had only 286 at-bats. Jeffers finished with a slash line that was top-10 across the board among catchers I ranked – 8th best average (.276), 4th best OBP (.369), and 7th best SLG (.490). His OPS of .858 ranked 3rd as did his OPS+ of 134. Basically, he had a great season. The problem is will he have it again? He had 14 homers and 35 RBI in 267 at-bats in 2021 but then fell to seven and 27 in 212 at-bats in 2022.
The San Diego Padres have given Luis Campusano bits of playing time since 2020, but finally gave him a real debut last year when he appeared in 49 games and got 163 at-bats. All he did was slash .319/.356/.491 with seven homers and 30 RBI. His 162-game average is 19 homers and 78 RBI. His career home run rate in the minors is 3.2%, not too far off from the 4.0% rate he had last year.
The Shortstop
I’m not sure when Jordan Lawlar’s time will come, but the top prospect for the Diamondbacks and No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 draft out of high school blasted his way through the Arizona system, where he was often the youngest player on the field. His career slash line in the minors was .291/.390/.503. Last season at Double-A, where he was on average four years younger than the rest of the players, he slashed .263/.366/.474 with 15 homers, 48 RBI, and 33 steals in 89 games. At Triple-A those numbers were .358/.438/.612 5-19-3 in 16 games.
In his brief stint with the Diamondbacks last season he was overmatched. But he has speed, he has power and he can hit. He may not be great this year, or even good, but he will be sooner rather than later.
Williams and Detmers
I often shy away from young pitchers due to the fact they take a while to develop. But that was not the case for Williams. He posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He doesn’t overpower hitters as he basically averages a strikeout per inning, and he still walked too many batters with a 4.1 BB/9 rate. But he held opposing hitters to a .219/.310/.368 slash line, way below the MLB average of .248/.320/.414. At 24, he is already a pitcher and not just a thrower, which puts him ahead of the curve.
Reid Detmers didn’t have a pretty ERA/WHIP last season, posting a 4.48 ERA and 1.352 WHIP thanks to a high 3.6 BB/9 rate. But Detmers had a 10.2 K/9 rate, which was a career high. Looking at his numbers, he held batters to a .244/.325/.401 slash line, which is pretty much league average. Like Williams, he is only 24, and in each season he has pitched, his strikeout percentage has increased from 18.8% to 22.6% to 26.1%. That is a trend I like.
140-136
The Over-30 Crowd
Christian Yelich will be 32 on Opening Day, and the days of him hitting 36 and 44 homers are long gone. But the Milwaukee left fielder is still good for 20 or so homers every year while also scoring runs and driving in runs (106 RS and 76 RBI in 2023). He also still has speed as he swiped 28 bags last year and he will produce a solid slash line for you, as he did this past year (.278/.370/.447). His Hard-Hit% was in the 93rd percentile last year and his Avg. EV was in the 86th percentile, a sign that his bat is not slowing down.
Since 2019, and counting full seasons only, Nolan Arenado’s home run totals have dropped each season, going from 41 to 34 to 30 to 26 last season. But the Cardinals’ third baseman has driven in 118, 105, 103, and 93 runs during that time. So while the power may be dropping, he is still driving in runs. The area that I am not fond of is a strikeout rate (16.5%) that was nearly two points higher than his career average and a walk rate (6.7%) that fell to a full point lower than his career rate. I can’t say it is a trend as it was one season, but it is something to watch for.
Shouldn’t He Be Better?
Carlos Correa started his career in 2015 with the Astros and won the Rookie of the Year award that season in 99 games. Since that year (not counting 2020), however, staying on the field has been tough for Correa. In 2016 he played 153 games and he appeared in 148 in 2021. Otherwise, the last two seasons with the Twins in which he has played 136 and 135 games have been the most he has played in during a given season.
If Correa could stay healthy, he would be a top ten shortstop as his 162-game average is 27 homers, 98 RBI, and a .272/.351/.468 slash line. But despite being a two-time All-Star, Correa has never driven in more than 96 runs and has surpassed 25 homers only once. He is a solid shortstop, but I would only expect 20 homers and 65 RBI out of him and anything else is gravy.
Solid but not Spectacular
In 2021, Cedric Mullins hit 30 homers and slugged .518. I think that was an anomaly as he has hit 16 and 15 since and slugged .403 and .416 – more in line with his career average of .429. However, Mullins posted back-to-back 30-steal seasons in 2021 and 2022 and stole 19 in 116 games last year. What I expect from Mullins is 30 to 35 steals, 15 to 20 homers, and a slash line of .257/.323/.429.
Busting Out
For two years, the Chicago White Sox let Jake Burger toil away as he appeared in only 15 games in 2021 and 51 in 2022. Given a chance last season, Burger hit 25 homers and slashed .214/.279/.527 with the White Sox before being traded to the Marlins. With Miami he added another nine homers in 53 games and slashed .303/.355/.505. For the season he finished with 34 homers and 80 RBI and a 120 OPS+.
The power is real and that makes him a good player to have.
135-131
The Catching Youngsters
Bo Naylor showed his potential in his 2023 rookie season. In only 198 at-bats, he hit 11 homers and had a .470 slugging percentage. Yes, he hit .237 with a .339 OBP, but I don’t expect my catchers to deliver great averages and OBPs. Those who do are ranked a lot higher. But what I do want in my catchers is power, and Naylor had a 4.8% home run rate last year. Additionally, he had a 13.0 walk rate. There is plenty of upside in Naylor and room to move up these rankings.
Logan O’Hoppe was another catcher who had an impressive rookie season. He appeared in only 51 games in 2023 but he hit 14 home runs and slugged .500, fourth among catchers. He did have a less-than-desirable average of .236 and OBP of .296, but his 162-game average is 40 homers and 90 RBI. He’s not going to play 162 games next year, but he can easily hit 25 homers if not get close to 30 if he stays healthy.
Keibert Ruiz was sneaky good for Washington last year. The switch-hitter slashed .260/.308/.409 and struck out only 58 times in 562 plate appearances (10.3% strikeout rate). He also hit 18 homers and drove in 67. The home run rate jumped from 1.6% in 2021 to 3.2% last year and Ruiz should be good for another 20 or so homers this year.
The Outfielder and the First Baseman
If you are looking for power from your outfielders, you may want to skip over Jarren Duran. In 332 at-bats last year he hit eight homers. But if you are looking for speed, then Duran is a player to target. He stole 24 bases and was caught only twice in his 102 games for the Red Sox. Assuming he gets more playing time with Boston, he should reach 30 to 35 steals. And while I said he is not a power hitter, he did have a .482 slugging percentage, so it’s not like he can’t reach double digits in homers.
Nathaniel Lowe vexes me. He has shown he can hit home runs, hitting 27 and slugging .496 for the Rangers in 2022. But in his other two full seasons (2021 and 2023), he hit 18 and 17 homers and slugged .415 and .416. I think he is a player who should settle somewhere between those numbers, which means 22 homers and 75 RBI. Not great, but a lot better than many other first basemen.
130-126
Pick a Shortstop, Any Shortstop
Zach Neto was drafted by the Angels with the 13th pick 0f the first round in 2022 out of Campbell University and he ended the season at Double-A Rocket City. Neto didn’t break camp with the Angels in 2023, but it didn’t take long for him to get the call-up to the majors after a blistering start in the minors. He finished 2023 with a slash line of .225/.308/.377 with nine homers and 34 RBI in 84 games as injuries kept him off the field too often. But his 8.8 Barrel% was nearly two points higher than the MLB average while his average EV and Sweet Spot% were slightly higher than average.
In his first full season with Colorado, Ezequiel Tovar slashed .253/.287/.408 with 15 home runs, 73 RBI and 11 steals. Yes, there are some numbers he put up that aren’t pretty, like a 27% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. He also hit only .190 against breaking pitches with a 39.7% Whiff rate. However, Tovar will only be 22 this season, leaving plenty of room for improvement.
Dansby Swanson didn’t put produce a great slash line (.244/.328/.416) in his first season on the Northside, but Swanson’s value is his ability to hit home runs and drive in runners. His 22 dingers ranked 8th and his 80 RBI ranked 7th among the shortstops. He’s no longer a spring chicken, but he still has years of production left in him.
On the Bailey Bandwagon
I have been overlooking what Bailey Ober can do on the mound for too long. But that oversight ended last year. As a rookie in 2021, he had a 102 ERA+ and a 9.4 K/9 rate to go with a 5.05 K/BB rate. While he was limited to 11 starts in 2022, he did have a 3.21 ERA and 1.054 WHIP with a decent 8.2 K/9 rate and a solid 4.64 K/BB rate.
In 2023, he made 26 starts and posted a 125 ERA+ with a 3.43 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. His K/9 rate jumped back up to 9.1 to pair with a 5.03 K/BB rate. If you have been like me and underrating Ober, it is time to stop doing so. He strikes out hitters and doesn’t issue free passes. That is a nice combination to have in a starting pitcher and he is entering his prime years.
A Tad Underrated
Anthony Santander tends to get overlooked in the fantasy baseball world. Maybe it’s due to the fact that he plays for the formerly dormant Baltimore Orioles. But over the last two seasons, he has been a top right fielder. If you entered the 2023 season thinking Santander’s 2022 campaign was a fluke, then I guess he proved you wrong. After slashing .240/.318/.455 with 33 homers and 89 RBI in ’22, the Orioles right fielder hit 28 homers and drove in 95 runs while slashing .257/.325/.472 in 2023.
He has a career home run rate of 4.5% and his career ISO is .211 (MLB average is .167). Over the last three years his Avg. EV has been 90.5, 90.0, and 90.6 mph. Santander hits the ball hard and far.
Come Back Next Week
Thanks for reading and come back again next week for Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: 125-101.
If you need to catch up, here are the previous rankings:
