When thinking about Razzball, I immediately fall to my knees, throw both arms out to the side, and tilt my head back ever so slightly in order to take in the rays shooting out from the whiskers of the one, the only Grey Albright. I have no doubt that he employs Sal Goodman for all his legal dealings. When thinking about starting pitching, though, the last thing I think about is Jon Gray of the Texas Rangers. If his name was Jon Grey Albright, then he’d be the 1.01 without question. But he is not, and Rudy’s bots have him ranked as the 58th starting pitcher for 2024. But I kind of like him, especially in deeper leagues. Yes, I have some Forrest Gump in me but at least I have reasons for mixing the black and white in order to delve into the Gray.
Gray is 32 years old, 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, and throws from the right side. He was selected by the Colorado Rockies with the third overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. After becoming a free agent in 2021, Gray signed with the Texas Rangers.
Throughout his minor league career, the ability to suppress home runs stands out. He never had a HR/9 over 1. I am not counting the 1.93 mark in 9.1 innings during the 2017 Triple-A season. The strikeout rate was in the 8 to 9 range while the walk rate was in the low-3s.
Gray made his MLB debut in 2016, pitching 168 innings and posting a 9.91 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, and 0.96 HR/9. The ERA was 4.61 but the FIP was only 3.6. Thanks, Coors Field. He had his trials and tribulations going forward, suffering injuries and just plain ole sucking, getting sent down to Triple-A. He pitched more than 150 innings in a season just once but the stats weren’t bad considering pitching in Colorado. The K/9 was over 9, the BB/9 was mid-3s and the HR/9 was never above 1.41.
During his first season with Texas, Gray had finger and knee injuries, resulting in pitching only 127 innings. He did post respectable numbers of 9.47 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9 and 3.8 FIP. Last season, he missed some time towards the end of the season with forearm tightness, but he ended up pitching 157 innings and balled out in a relief role during the playoffs. All of the numbers were worse from the prior year, though. The K/9 was only 8.12, the walk rate ticked up to 3.09 and the FIP was 4.47. The HR/9 was 1.26.
I’m a give-me-the-bad-news-first kind of guy. If my plate has a juicy steak with veggies and potatoes, I’m taking care of the veggies first, handling the potatoes next, then taking my time to savor and experience the steak last.
Gray has his warts for sure. There are reasons why he’s the 58th-ranked starting pitcher.
Last season, Gray had a HR/FB rate of 13.5%. The two prior seasons, that number was 14.2% and 15.1%. The 13.5% was the 19th-worst mark in MLB last season.
The maxEV of 114.6 mph was 26th. The average exit velocity of 89.4 mph was 25th. The launch angle of 13.4 degrees was 24th. The K-BB% of 13.4% was only 49th. While the fastball velocity is around 96 mph, it wasn’t a good pitch last season, posting 19 runs below average and garnering a paltry 82 Stuff+ number.
Huh. I’m about to delete this whole article. Let’s get to the good stuff.
The fastball was a bad pitch, but he’s still averaging around 96 mph with it. In 2020 and 2022, the fastball was 2.2 and 2.3 runs above average, so it’s within the range of outcomes that the pitch is a decent one. If so, that would make the slider that much more potent, which had a Stuff+ number of 115, the 21st-best in the league.
Many of the Statcast numbers aren’t great for Gray, but he allowed 6.4% barrels last season. There were only six other pitchers to allow fewer. And that number wasn’t an outlier as Gray has posted sub-7% barrel rates in the last three seasons.
Much of my analysis, for both hitters and pitchers, focuses on the plate discipline numbers.
Gray has a 34.8% and 35% chase rate over the last two seasons. That slider! The 35% number was the 12th-best mark in all of MLB last season. Gray also posted a 12.2% strikeout rate. That was the 19th-best mark.
Steamer has Gray projected for 166 innings, an 8.65 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9 and 4.41 FIP. I think there’s upside from those numbers, especially if he can get that fastball cooking again. Just compare the 2022 numbers to last year. A 9+ K/9, sub-3 BB/9 with a sub-4 FIP is well within the range of outcomes. Here are the pitchers who are projected for a 100+ innings, 9+ K/9, sub-3 BB/9 and sub-4 FIP this upcoming season (NFBC ADP in parentheses):
Gray is currently being drafted as the 318th player on average in NFBC drafts since the start of February. The risk/reward looks mighty favorable to me.
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(Editor’s Note: We have a few spots left in Razzball Commenter Leagues drafting this month, including some money leagues, like this one for $20 against Truss drafting this Saturday, March 16th at 10 PM ET – Click to join!)
