Welcome back to Hitter Profiles for the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Last week we covered the AL Central and this week we head over to the NL East. This is a division bifurcated by postseason hopes. Beyond the goal of using bifurcation in a fantasy analysis (twice!), we have potential World Series contenders and playoff hopefuls between the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins. Those three will provide plentiful fantasy options while the pickings get slim at the bottom of the division (sorry Mets and Nationals). As we prep for spring training it is time to dig deep for those sleepers while avoiding those early round temptations. So without further ado let’s walk through the boom and bust candidates in the NL East!
Important Notes: All views focus on 5×5 rotisserie formats with NFBC ADP and Yahoo position eligibility.
Boom
Lane Thomas – Nationals (ADP 107)
Going in the ninth round of standard drafts, Lane Thomas may be one of the most boring hitters in the major leagues. However, obtaining a player who could potentially hit 30 home runs and steal 20 bases with a .265 average as the 61st hitter on draft day is exciting. Thomas played through a back injury in 2023 and still delivered 28 long balls, 100 runs and 20 steals. He does everything just above average which gives a great result even if not one skill jumps off the page. Thomas is the epitome of past performance predicts future success. When you are looking at the cost of a third outfielder there are way worse options in the draft. Enjoy boring but fruitful production from Mr. Thomas in 2024.
Jarred Kelenic- Braves (ADP 222)
Going as a fifth outfielder in one of the best lineups in baseball, Jarred Kelenic will have the least amount of pressure on his shoulders that he has had his entire career. Projected to bat eighth while patrolling left field, Kelenic paced out to a better than a 15/15 season. We must not forget the prospect pedigree from which he was born. With a reasonable floor and strong lineup to produce runs, a little growth in his age 24 season could easily produce a 20/20 result. Kelenic has much higher upside than some other outfielders going before him such as Brandon Nimmo or Steven Kwan. While Kelenic is far from a sure thing, he is surely intriguing.
Bust
Jazz Chisholm – Marlins (ADP 68)
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first, Jazz Chisholm is an extremely talented hitter and could be a league winner. Unfortunately, as the 40th hitter off the board, there are high expectations already baked into his price. This is a player that hits for a .250 average while striking out 30% of the time showing volatility across his whole profile. Even if we were to accept the volatility, he is averaging merely 90 games a season. The average draft position this off-season seems to agree as he has gone as high as the fourth round and as late as the ninth round in early drafts. As I said, Jazz may win the league, but the odds are much more likely he will drive you crazy all season long.
CJ Abrams – Nationals (ADP – 40)
CJ Abrams delivered a lot of championships at the end of last fantasy season. In early drafts, owners have not forgotten that breakout. He is going off the board as the 31st hitter and eighth shortstop. While CJ Abrams can deliver the highlights, there are certainly warning signs. His home run per flyball rate was much higher than expected for his skill set. From a consistency perspective, he also only had a single month hitting better than .250 across all of 2024. In addition, Abrams does not walk much (5%) with a contact profile that has been inconsistent throughout his career. For those of you on the Aldaberto Mondesi train in prior years, the profile is too similar for me to invest.
