As I said the other day in my Evan Carter 2024 fantasy outlook thingie-ma-whosies, there wasn’t a consensus for who would be the top rookie in 2024 fantasy redraft leagues. There was a consensus about who would be the top rookie if they started the year with the club in April. You guessed it: Jackson Holliday. Itch gave me a list of the top redraft 2024 fantasy rookies for me to discuss — ooh, homework! — and he said that Jackson Holliday would start the year with the Orioles in April or July. So, that’s Jackson Holliday’s caveat up front. We have no idea when he will be up with the Orioles. If past is prologue, and I am using ‘past is prologue’ correctly, we only have to look at how the Orioles promoted Adley Rutschman two years ago. Adley reached Triple-A in 2021 for 43 games, then they pretended he needed Triple-A in 2022, until he was called up. Last year, Jackson Holliday reached Triple-A, spent 18 games there, doesn’t need to be there, but the Orioles are going to pretend that he has to spend another six weeks there and call him up on May 21st, thereabouts. The game plan has been revealed by my mind. Sorry, for those of you who think Jackson Holliday will start the year in the majors. He won’t. The Orioles just had the best record in the AL without him, so it’s not like they need him. They need someone like Merrill Kelly more than they need him, tee be aitch. For full disclosure, if I thought Jackson Holliday would start the year with the Orioles, he’d be the top rookie. Of course, if the Orioles surprise me in the spring, and Holliday does break camp, he will fly up draft boards like Jordan Walker last year. The Walker bump! So, what can we expect from Jackson Holliday for 2024 fantasy baseball?
Jackson Holliday was 2nd overall on the Itch’s top 25 for fantasy baseball. Think even Itch would agree that Holliday is more can’t miss than number one. Jackson Holliday feels as can’t miss as Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. were can’t miss, and, I know what you’re thinking (because I’m inside your head), are they really can’t miss? Yes, they are. Cake Batter and Boba made good on their promise from a real world perspective. Maybe their fantasy value has been more hit and miss than can’t miss, but top prospects aren’t all guaranteed to be Corbin Carroll or other crazy high speed and power guys. For what it’s Cronenworth, Cake and Boba are great. I harp a little on those two, because they seem more in line with Jackson Holliday than Corbin Carroll. Any hoo! Let’s look at a few clips:
That swing.
The @Orioles‘ Jackson Holliday hits his 12th homer of the year, second with the Triple-A @NorfolkTides. pic.twitter.com/Qdgm39pPsI
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 23, 2023
That was the final homer of the year for him, and I grabbed that clip because it showed how much he has to get into the ball to drive it. He’s crazy young (19 until December), so he can grow into more power, but if he gets called up in 2024, does anyone think he’s going to hit for a ton of power? Not a drain, mind you. Not saying he won’t hit for any power, but that’s not a soon-to-be 20-year-old who is going to hit 30+ homers. He might not hit 15 in 120-ish games. Okay, about the wheels:
Jackson Holliday turns the first pitch he sees today into a game-tying triple.
MLB’s No. 1 prospect (@Orioles) is batting .347 in 25 games for the Double-A @BowieBaysox. pic.twitter.com/DpYg0dqPdT
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 20, 2023
Jackson Holliday, like many prospects before him, shows wheels develop before power. To avoid sounding like a real Boomer, he reminds me of the young version of his dad. Matt’s first two years in the majors: 14/3/.290 and 19/14/.307. That was in Coors too. We might not see the 30/15/.300 version of Jackson Holliday for three to five years. For three to five is also my PIN, don’t tell anyone. In conclusion, Jackson Holliday has power-to-come, easy speed, elite bat-to-ball skills, and should be up by the end of May. For fantasy, I’ll give Jackson Holliday projections of 64/10/58/.278/17 in 404 ABs with a chance for more.
