The Jon Singleton story is a fascinating one because it resonates so much for me. As it probably does for many others. It is a story of losing one’s way. It is a story of being young and dumb. It is a story of maturing, finding calm and peace so that things makes sense now.
Singleton is 32 years old, 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was selected by the Philadelphia Phillies in the eighth round of the 2009 MLB Draft. He became the second-best prospect in the organization before being traded to the Houston Astros two years later. He was suspended for marijuana use in 2013. The following season, the Astros signed him to a five-year, $10 million contract without appearing in a single MLB game. That’s how highly they thought of him as a player.
His MLB stints did not go well. In 362 plate appearances during the 2014 season, Singleton slashed .168/.285/.335 with a 37% strikeout rate. He hit 13 home runs, drove in 44, and stole two bases. The following season, he received only 58 plate appearances, slashed .191/.328/.298, and had a 29.3% strikeout rate with a .106 ISO.
A year later, he was waived, got suspended again for marijuana, played in Mexico, then finally returned to MLB in 2022 with the Milwaukee Brewers. He performed well in Triple-A, but the success didn’t translate again to the majors. The Brewers waived him and the Astros swooped in and signed him again. In 73 plate appearances at the end of the 2023 season, Singleton only slashed .194/.301/.323 but had two home runs and 10 RBI. The strikeout rate was only 16.4%.
In 70 plate appearances this season, the slash is .258/.329/.435 with three home runs and eight RBI. The walk rate is 10% while the strikeout rate is 20%. The ISO is .177. Since Jose Abreu was sent down to the minors, though, Singleton has smashed. In 23 plate appearances, he’s slashed .300/.348/.750 with three home runs, an 8.7% strikeout rate and .450 ISO!
Now, before I dig a little deeper into this season’s numbers, I want to go back to provide some context.
Singleton has recently said that he had a substance abuse problem. Growing up in the LBC aka Long Beach aka Snoop Doggy Dog, Singleton said he started smoking marijuana at age 14. He liked how it made him feel. I used to smoke a lot myself, so I get it. While I would just want to play video games, watch movies, and munch on food, Singleton was able to play baseball. He should be in the Hall of Fame just for that.
After he signed the five-year deal, he said that he felt anxious and the pressure got to him. Smoking marijuana helped with the anxiety. Oftentimes, we forget that players are human beings, not the robots who produce stats for us nerds.
Singleton lost a ton of experience from the suspensions, but he persevered and battled back. He went to rehab and figured things out. “Now that I look back, I did have addiction issues because I was doing it every day. I didn’t have the tools or mentality to change my ways. But going to rehab and learning about the human body, that has definitely helped me, not only with just substance abuse, but overall life.” – USA Today.
That maturity looks to have manifested at the plate so far this season. Throughout his minor and major league careers, Singleton has always had a good eye. There has been only one instance when the walk rate was sub-10%. That was in 2011 during the Single-A season, when he posted a 9.5% walk rate in 148 plate appearances. He’s at 10% this season.
The plate discipline numbers have seen dramatic improvements. The chase rate is only 24.6% while the swinging strike rate is a paltry 7.9%. The contact rate in the zone is 89.9%. Back in 2014, the chase rate was only 26.7%, but the contact rate in the zone was only 70.2% while the swinging strike rate was 15.1%.
For a power hitter, those are lovely numbers.
Speaking of power, Singleton currently has a .177 ISO, so the power isn’t particularly robust. But he has posted +.200 ISO numbers multiple times in Triple-A. The average exit velocity is 88.8 mph while the maxEV is 114.4 mph. If he qualified, that would put him 89th and 12th in MLB. That ain’t bad, yo!
Singleton has been batting sixth or seventh in the lineup, so that’s not ideal. And he likely won’t ever be a middle-of-the-order bat. That said, the Astros offense hasn’t started humming yet, so more opportunities to deliver could be in the offering.
Joey Loperfido is a young prospect who plays some first base, but he will likely be utilized more in the outfield. In addition, there’s a chance that Jose Abreu is toast and Singleton mans first base for the remainder of the season. Or he could start sucking again while Abreu regains his form. Not likely but within the range of outcomes. Whatever. Singleton is free right now and the risk/reward profile is very favorable to slot into a CI slot.
Cover Photo by: Tom Hagerty
