Happy Monday, Razzball faithful!
To tell you the truth, I had a tough time figuring out who to run out as the lede this week.
I wanted to go back to the well of everlasting goodness that is Paul Skenes, but I’m saving something special for that guy for next week’s Marmo double-dip.
Joe Ryan? Yep, he was a finalist. Gavin Stone? Oh, he’ll get his lede at some point too.
But which Top 10 arm needs a bit more magnification? Which pitcher did certain analysts assume would struggle to stay healthy because he was coming off of arm troubles?
Which guy has a body type that resembles a walking stick, and was headed to a new city in a lopsided deal for an up-and-coming highly regarded middle infielder with a plus hit tool?
Not really Chris Sale’s high school yearbook photo.
Well, we can officially announce it now. Whether it was in Boston or Atlanta. This has been a pretty great Sale of two cities.
The Dickens novel that I borrowed today’s title from had a few neat pieces of summary that I thought stood out in our comparison.
“Themes of love, sacrifice, and personal transformation are explored, along with the characters’ journeys and quests for redemption.”
Well, there was certainly no love lost for Sale as he exited Chicago, that’s for sure. But the journey and quest for redemption and personal transformation (after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) applies here, with or without the hyperbole.
I mentioned these numbers over the last couple of weeks, but in case you missed it here we go.
| STAT | THIS YEAR | CAREER BEST STAT | RANKING vs BEST YEAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| K/9 | 11.47 | 13.50 (2018 Red Sox) | 6th |
| BB/9 | 1.72 | 1.59 (2022 Red Sox) | 2nd |
| HR/9 | 0.63 | 0.63 (2018 Red Sox) | Tied 1st |
| xFIP | 2.45 | 2.31 (2018 Red Sox) | 2nd |
I know school is out now, so I’ll make it easy for you.
That 2018 season is the year that Jacob deGrom won the NL Cy Young award with just 10 wins (10-9). In the AL race, Sale posted a 12-4 record and recorded 237 strikeouts in just 158 innings on his way to a fourth-place finish in voting.
Arguments about that 2018 voting aside, if Sale keeps pitching like he has through the first half of the season it will be very difficult to deny him his first Cy Young award in October.
Great story, bro. But where is Sale in this week’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers update?
Cool your jets, man (and 5 women). Before we get to the list, I need to plug a couple of things for y’all first. If you want to check the spot I usually have open when flipping through my information on Sunday afternoons, you’re looking for that Player Rater leaderboard. This is always a great resource to use if you’re doing research. A bit of this, and a splash of that goes into the prep work for our weekly Top 100 Starting Pitchers list.
Of course, if you’re one of those doubting-your-own-gut-instinct fantasy managers, or just want to use a great resource that will point you in the right direction every week, The Streamonator is here to help you answer those burning questions.
If you haven’t signed up for it, this should be your go-to reference for the entire season. It will save you a lot of time researching and often includes those “Oh, I never thought about that” solutions. The Razzball subscriptions are well worth the price of admission. If you’re serious about improving throughout the season, check the link, yo.
| RANK
(LAST WEEK) |
Name | TEAM | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | Phillies | He’s starting to distance himself from some of his peers here. (Just don’t look at the June 16th game at BAL) |
| 2 (3) | Tarik Skubal | Tigers | More Below. |
| 3 (2) | Corbin Burnes | Orioles | This is less about his results, (which have been good over the last two starts), and more about the performance of the arms that surround him on this list. Still a Top 5 option no matter what. |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | Dodgers | I was fully prepared to hoist him up to the 2-spot this week but he gave up another 5 ER (this time vs MLW). The Ks are off the charts. |
| 5 (7) | Garrett Crochet | White Sox | More below |
| 6 | Chris Sale | Braves | Five straight starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Averaging close to 10 Ks per start. His K/9 isn’t quite a personal best (“only 11.71%), but he’s posted the best BB/9 of his 14-year career (1.72%). |
| 7 (8) | Grayson Rodriguez | Orioles | The 4 BBs weren’t great, but the o ER, 2 H, and 8 Ks at SEA were. Keeper league gold right here. |
| 8 (12) | George Kirby | Mariners | I wrote him up last week in the Wayne Gretzky section. It was between him and Houck for the last slot in our Top 10 this week. |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | Mariners | Call me biased, but Gilbert gets a bit more rope because of the elite control. The 3 BBs last week increased his total to 24 (over 117.2 IP). |
| 10 (28) | Paul Skenes | Pirates | More below. |
| 11 (15) | Aaron Nola | Phillies | It was either Nola or Lugo here and as a tie-breaker, I asked myself which one would keep it up throughout the second half. |
| 12 (10) | Tanner Houck | Red Sox | Gave up 4 BBs after a half-hour rain delay. Pitched just 3.1 innings. I guess Houck Tuah isn’t a fan of moisture. Yikes. |
| 13 | Kevin Gausman | Blue Jays | EVERY time I fire this up, fully prepared to drop him into the 20s, he puts up a strong start. 2 ER and 10 Ks at SEA with just 2 BBs. Safe…ish…for now. |
| 14 | Shoto Imanaga | Cubs | I wanted to move him back up but can’t see where he can crack through after giving up another 3 ER and 2 HR against PHI. 8 Ks for the first time in nine starts, though. |
| 15 (16) | Seth Lugo | Royals | He should be higher, especially if your league structure gives you boosted points for wins, but I can’t see anyone above him who I’d rather have ROS or in a keeper league. |
| 16 (17) | Sonny Gray | Cardinals | Like Lugo, he should be higher but I don’t know who I would have him knock off and replace…for now. |
| 17 (5) | Ranger Suarez | Phillies | It’s hard to keep a Top 10 spot when considerable regression is expected. Back-to-back starts of 5+ ER boots him out of the promised land. |
| 18 (11) | Luis Gil | Yankees | Uh oh. The earned runs are there. The walks are still there. The strikeouts have dried up (over his last three GS).
EDIT: I came home after last night’s Little League practice and saw that Gil had struck out 9 and allowed just 1 ER in 6.2 IP, so…*shrug emoji* |
| 19 (23) | Cole Ragans | Royals | If you’ve been reading all year, (first off, thank you), you’ll know I’m not as high on Ragans as some others are. The strikeout upside is filthy, though. Keeper league gold. |
| 20 | Luis Castillo | Mariners | Nothing like a start against the Blue Jays to bust a slump. He should move up soon. |
| 21 (22) | Max Fried | Braves | A Top 20 spot was down to him, Ragans, or Joe Ryan. Another Braves SP doing Braves SP things. |
| 22 (27) | Joe Ryan | Twins | A good start against a strong HOU offense last week. This is more about me hoping he can turn a corner in the 2nd half. |
| 23 | Pablo Lopez | Twins | In direct contrast to Joe Ryan above, Pablo followed up two strong starts with a 5-inning, 10 baserunner 6 ER stinker against the Astros last week. |
| 24 (37) | Gerrit Cole | Yankees | Gerrit Cole is ranked 24th?! Blasphemy! Yes, he’s too low this week. And he’ll likely be up in that Top 10 sooner rather than later, but the 4 ER against the Red Sox keeps him from returning to the promised land this week. |
| 25 (26) | Freddy Peralta | Brewers | Interesting that I looked at both Freddy and Zac Gallen for this spot and both of them lasted just 4 innings against LAD last week. The Dodgers certainly know how to get starters to throw a lot of pitches. |
| 26 (18) | Ronel Blanco | Astros | It’s the expectation of regression that keeps stopping me from boosting this guy. If you played the “Would You Rather?” game ROS, would you choose him instead of Dylan Cease? Freddy Peralta? Pablo Lopez? Joe Ryan? Meh. |
| 27 (24) | Dylan Cease | Padres | Here’s another one that I want to scoot up every time he throws a beauty. Then he follows it up with an implosion like he did last week and gets slowed down once again. |
| 28 (32) | Gavin Stone | Dodgers | A 25-year-old starter breaking out with run support from a strong offensive club? Yes, please. |
| 29 (33) | Tanner Bibee | Guardians | See Gavin Stone. |
| 30 (21) | Jack Flaherty | Tigers | More below. |
| 31 (34) | Zac Gallen | Diamondbacks | See Freddy Peralta above. His start against LAD wasn’t bad, but we’ll need to see that he’s back to his old, dominant self before he moves into the Top 25. |
| 32 (38) | Logan Webb | Giants | “7 innings, a few walks, a couple of earned runs, and half dozen strikeouts. That sounds like the Webb line for most starts.” This is what I wrote last week. Can you guess what his line was from his last start? |
| 33 (31) | Reynaldo Lopez | Braves | He’s already thrown more innings than he has since 2019. Slated to start yesterday v PHI. |
| 34 (29) | Mitch Keller | Pirates | It probably shouldn’t surprise you, but it feels like every time I look up the last start of an SP to move up the list it turns out they gave up 5+ ER in fewer than 5 IP. The good news for Keller was zero walks in his last one. |
| 35 (45) | Bailey Ober | Twins | Averaging 9 Ks over his last 4 starts with 5 ER in 27.1 IP? Ok. Back up we go. |
| 36 (30) | Nick Lodolo | Reds | Blister-finger is almost ready to return. May start the Reds’ final game before the All-Star break. |
| 37 (36) | Bryce Miller | Mariners | The Mariners’ least hyped SP, but still one of their best. |
| 38 (41) | Michael King | Padres | Hey, if Dylan Cease can get this much rope because of strikeout potential, King should get similar treatment. Strong back-to-back road starts in his last two. |
| 39 | Bryan Woo | Mariners | Expected to need just one rehab start. Like Lodolo, may be back this week to throw the team’s final game before the break. |
| 40 (25) | Jared Jones | Pirates | Out with a lat strain. Will likely miss the rest of July. I guess that’s one way to manage his innings. Sad emoji. |
| 41 (35) | Jose Berrios | Blue Jays | Gave up 5 at home v HOU last week after holding NYY to 2 ER in 7 IPs. I expected the see-saw to tilt into the slop again for yesterday’s start at SEA. |
| 42 | Max Scherzer | Rangers | Baby steps…for now. |
| 43 | Matt Waldron | Padres | 3 ER allowed in both of his last two starts, but I can’t move him down yet based on the success he had before those GS. |
| 44 (47) | Jake Irvin | Nationals | Two great starts in a row make the June 18th start look like an outlier. Started in 81% of leagues but was drafted in just 18% (Fantrax). He flip you for real. |
| 45 (65) | Justin Steele | Cubs | A big jump here after throwing a CG 2 hitter. One earned run, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. |
| 46 (48) | Hunter Greene | Reds | 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 0 vomit. |
| 47 (53) | Erick Fedde | White Sox | 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 Ks. Summer writing assignment: Who gets traded first? Fedde or Crochet? Discuss. |
| 48 (46) | Nestor Cortes | Yankees | Not so hospitable v BOS at home. 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 8 Ks. |
| 49 | Brady Singer | Royals | The unmasked Singer, because you already know what you’re going to get. (Decent Ks and ratios). |
| 50 (40) | Christopher Sanchez | Phillies | A 7 ER explosion on July 4th pushes him down 10 spots. At least he didn’t blow off any fingers. |
| 51 (50) | Nick Pivetta | Red Sox | 7 scoreless innings with 10 Ks should have probably pushed him into the 40s this week. |
| 52 | Nathan Eovaldi | Rangers | 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 6 Ks hold him here this week. Another one like this v TB (slated to start yesterday) pushes him up next. |
| 53 (59) | Bobby Miller | Dodgers | Having a tough time returning from IL, but the upside makes it tough to drop hm further. Should benefit from the upcoming break. |
| 54 | MacKenzie Gore | Nationals | Every time I want to move him up, he puts up a stinker. Every time I try to move him down…well, you know. |
| 55 (70) | Taj Bradley | Rays | The double-digit strikeout potential in every start makes people salivate. If he keeps building up stamina (and innings), he should move up even higher. |
| 56 (44) | Ben Lively | Guardians | 44 was a too optimistic last week. Just outside the Top 50 feels right…for now. |
| 57 | Ryan Pepiot | Rays | Upside! The question is, “Does he stay in Tampa to develop, or is he traded at the deadline?” |
| 58 (62) | Kutter Crawford | Red Sox | Followed up a washed-out start (weather) with a beauty at MIA. |
| 59 (60) | Carlos Rodon | Yankees | 18 HR allowed is tied for second in MLB. |
| 60 (52) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Dodgers | Throwing this week. Still not expected back until mid-August at the earliest. |
| 61 | Yusei Kikuchi | Blue Jays | His last start was better than his recent ones, but he still hasn’t thrown 6+ innings in over a month. |
| 62 (66) | Brandon Pfaadt | Diamondbacks | Was throwing a gem before getting pulled with an ankle injury. Expected to make his next start. |
| 63 | Chris Bassitt | Blue Jays | His overall numbers look decent at first glance, but he hasn’t been overly effective or consistently good this year. |
| 64 | Zach Eflin | Rays | Followed up 6 scoreless innings against WSH with 5 ER at KC. Barf emoji. |
| 65 (55) | Framber Valdez | Astros | Maybe it’s because he burned me so badly, but the (War Room) expectations are not meeting the results. |
| 66 (56) | Justin Verlander | Astros | Hasn’t thrown off a mound in three weeks. Won’t be back until after the All-Star break. |
| 67 (73) | Hunter Brown | Astros | Gave up just one earned run in five starts, so I had him slotted to move way up…then he gave up 7 ER at MIN on Saturday night and got hit like a pinata at a birthday party. Ugh. |
| 68 | Jon Gray | Rangers | He’s been iffy, but the numbers are there. Monitor after the break to see if the extended rest has helped him bounce back from the groin pull. |
| 69 (85) | Shane Baz | Rays | We’ve been waiting for this recall! 6 IP, 8 baserunners, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks is a pretty good season debut. Hopefully, the Rays clear out some space for these guys in the rotation at the trade deadline (Springs, Bradley, Baz, etc.) |
| 70 (58) | Mitchell Parker | Nationals | The wheels of regression are spinning…fast. |
| 71 (67) | Andrew Abbott | Reds | 4 more walks last week make it 10 in his last two (total) but hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 6 starts. |
| 72 (75) | Brayan Bello | Red Sox | 6.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 Ks. He must’ve been sad that we dropped him out of the 60s. More of these, please! |
| 73 (78) | Reese Olson | Tigers | The difference between steady and boring is perspective. 8+ Ks in 3 of his last 4 starts. |
| 74 | Ben Brown | Cubs | Threw a bullpen last weekend and was scheduled to throw another this weekend. If all goes well, he should end up with a rehab start before the break. |
| 75 (NR) | Michael Wacha | Royals | Fozzie Bear’s buddy has quietly put up a string of 16.1 innings with just 3 ER, 6 BB, and 19 Ks in his last three games. |
| 76 | Clarke Schmidt | Yankees | Started a throwing program. Early-to-mid August return at the earliest. |
| 77 (87) | Yariel Rodriguez | Blue Jays | Sweet Yariel! The Streamonator was right for his two-start week. Hopefully, he can build on the success. Notched his first career victory at Seattle on Saturday. |
| 78 (81) | Luis Severino | Mets | Streamer for now until he gets dealt to a contender. |
| 79 | Charlie Morton | Braves | The walks aren’t great, but he’s recorded over a strikeout an inning and is being productive as an SP4/5 in ATL. |
| 80 | James Paxton | Dodgers | Bounced back from an implosion against SF. As long as he can control the walks, the Dodgers should continue to give him the run support to get more wins. Strikeouts are few and far between. |
| 81 (82) | Dean Kremer | Orioles | He did NOT look like the same pitcher that gave up 4 HR in the rehab start. 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 Ks. More of those kinds of starts and he’ll move back up pretty quickly. |
| 82 (84) | Jose Soriano | Angels | It was between him and Littell for this spot. Then Littell gave up 7 earned runs and it made for a much easier decision. |
| 83 (86) | Jameson Taillon | Cubs | The strikeouts aren’t there, but what if I told you in March that we’d get to the All-Star break and Jameson Taillon would have a sub-3.00 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP? |
| 84 (77) | Jordan Hicks | Giants | Underwhelming when compared to those around him here. And that should tell you something. |
| 85 (69) | Yu Darvish | Padres | This might be a bit reactive, but the Padres placed him on the restricted list on Saturday and didn’t say when they expect him back with the team. Groin strain, elbow inflammation, and a personal issue make quite the trifecta of “Uh Oh”. |
| 86 (72) | Joe Musgrove | Padres | Same kind of story as Darvish. Injured with no definite timeline for a return. |
| 87 (89) | Kyle Gibson | Cardinals | Earned runs and walks are never a good combination, but Gibson keeps recording strikeouts and is 3-1 in his last 4 starts. |
| 88 | Gavin Williams | Guardians | Last week he had an ugly first start back from the IL. Let’s give him a few more before we move him. |
| 89 (71) | Javier Assad | Cubs | Eligible to return this week (July 13). |
| 90 (NR) | Christian Scott | Mets | Roughed up at WSH in his first game back since being demoted in May. Scheduled at PIT today. |
| 91 (NR) | Kodai Senga | Mets | Had a High-A rehab start last week and a AAA start is scheduled for tomorrow. He should be back by the last week of July at the latest. |
| 92 (97) | DJ Herz | Nationals | Came back to Earth yesterday after striking out 10 two starts ago. Still upside-ier (totally a word) than others in this section. |
| 93 (83) | Zack Littell | Rays | I was ready to give him a little boost based on his last three starts, but the 7 ER at TEX yesterday changed that in a hurry. |
| 94 | Michael Lorenzen | Rangers | 5 innings of one-hit shutout ball? Wowie! Now was that enough to distract you from the 5 BBs and 4 Ks? I’m asking for a friend. With the initials M.D. |
| 95 (90) | Marcus Stroman | Yankees | More below. |
| 96 (95) | Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | I had a bit of a giggle when he got smoked for 10 runs in 4.1 IP with one strikeout in his previous start, but last week’s 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 Ks was a nice bounce-back. |
| 97 (98) | Bailey Falter | Pirates | More below. |
| 98 (NR) | Tyler Anderson | Angels | I didn’t really want to add him here, but the Player Rater has him 26th between Imanaga and Gavin Stone so I figured I’d better fit him in somewhere. I nearly went with David Festa instead. |
| 99 | Robbie Ray | Giants | Slated to return after the all-star break and is on a rehab assignment now. Nearly put Edward Cabrera in here instead. |
| 100 | Jesus Luzardo | Marlins | Injured List. Hold here for now. |
BIGGEST DUMPERS: With apologies to Cal Raleigh, these are some of the biggest dumpers (in value, not pants size).
Jack Flaherty 30 (21) – Before the Flaherty truthers come at me with tiger-toothed pitchforks, please bear with me (because I’m not lyin’). When the report is that a player has received a second pain-killing injection in his back, things aren’t what one would call “encouraging”. Flaherty has had an <insert your favorite hyperbole> resurgence this season and I take no pleasure in typing this out, but I did say to a die-hard Tigers fan that they’d better have a truckload of duct tape to keep this guy together until at least the day after the MLB trade deadline. His numbers are off the charts and he’s ranked in the Top 5 in K/9, BB/9, and K/BB. Ignoring a back injury is definitely a worse idea than shopping him in a keeper league while his value is this high.
Jared Jones 40 (25) – So I’m pretty sure I’ve told you this before. I run “NOTES” on my phone that I update throughout the week to give me an idea of who I want to move up, down, or hold in the list. This is what I wrote about Jones since last Sunday. See if you can pinpoint where the note changes from good to bad…”5 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. I’d love to see a couple more IPs in each of these starts, but it’s still been lovely. Move him up a few, maybe? ANNNNNNND…HE’S HURT!”
Marcus Stroman 95 (90) – Storytime! Last week I had some dental work done and the hygienist asked if I wanted the TV on. I said that would be fine and lo and behold, the sports network had the Yankees and Reds game on. As soon as I got the novocaine shot to my upper gums, I realized that it was Stroman’s start.
It turned out to be pretty fitting because the Reds hitters (metaphorically) punched Mister Marcus right in the mouth. The dentist said, “If you feel any pain or need me to stop, just lift your left arm”. I nodded. A few minutes later she stopped. “Sorry!” I mumbled. It was an automatic fist clench and pump for a 3rd inning Jonathan India home run. A short while later, she stopped once again. That was the second fist raise for a 5th-inning Spencer Steer round-tripper. Moral of the story? If you have to have oral surgery, make sure you don’t do it while hitters that you own in multiple leagues are swinging against Marcus Stroman in Yankee Stadium because it might be too difficult to contain your excitement. (Or something like that).
Bailey Falter 97 (98) – 15-day IL with triceps tendinitis. Tried to pitch through it on Friday, but was pulled from the game when he…uh…floundered? No. Wavered? Nah, that’s not it. Teetered? Man, if only there was a word that best describes when someone loses their strength or steadiness…
Lance Lynn NR (96) – I mentioned last week that even though I hated adding him to the list, he had pitched well in his last two games. Plus, the Streamonator liked his start last week. Well, much to the delight of James Wood and the rest of the Nationals the “real” Lance Lynn showed up. Right after Wood’s first MLB homer (and 5 RBI night), resident Cards fan and bullpen writer JKJ said, “Of course off Lynn”. That pretty much sums it up.
BIGGEST JUMPERS: Who’s got hops? These are some of the biggest jumpers in value this week.
Tarik Skubal 2 (3) – This isn’t really the biggest jumper, but I felt obligated to write him up here because he’s the first pitcher to unseat one of our top two this year. There’s nothing Skibidi with Skubal. He’s given up a few earned runs over his last starts, but when you’re pitching like this in front of a “not-so-elite” offense, the attention is warranted. He pitched in Cincinnati yesterday, (after I finished writing this), and that’s fitting because he’s been making hitters look like they’ve got nothing but that Skibidi Ohio Rizz all season long. Late Night EDIT #57: Skubal struck out a career-high 13 with 3 H and 0 BB in 7 IP. Ooh boy!
Garret Crochet 5 (7) – Workload concerns be damned! The MLB strikeout leader has no concern for your load management! My biggest jumpers are a bit of a cherry-picking in the Top 10 this week, but I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to highlight a couple of things about the Croch-Rocket. (A) The K/9 is a league-best 12.71%. (B) The BB/9 ranks 14th among league leaders at 1.94%. (C) We know there isn’t one. (D) Have a peek at TLB’s Mid-Season Fantasy SP Value if you’re looking for a nice surprise…which is now as much a surprise as it would be if you used plastic wrap instead of colored paper for your kid’s birthday presents.
Paul Skenes 10 (28) – I have said before that I’m concerned that the Pirates will shut him down. That’s why I haven’t ranked him higher than 25. Well, there comes a point in every pirate’s life when we need to batten down the hatches and make common sense walk the proverbial plank. I’ll go more into the Skenes scene next week in my All-Star break piece, but Grey and BDon said it on the pod a couple of weeks ago; he’s a Top 10 SP right now. If you did a “Would you rather?” with anyone in a keeper league, I don’t know how many other starting pitcher names would get a vote (if any).
OOF
Jordan Montgomery – I just can’t anymore.
Blake Snell – See Jordan Montgomery. But I do expect Snell to return to the list before Jo-Mo does.
Alec Marsh – I declare that this experiment is … finito.
WHEE!
Christian Scott (90)
Kodai Senga (91)
Tyler Anderson (98)
That’s all for this week! I hope you enjoyed it! Next week, I’ll post the Top 100 Starting Pitchers with some write-ups on some of the arms that I think need a bit more attention than others. Then, I’ll try to keep cherry-picking names to highlight throughout the list as we progress through the season.
Drop some comments in the chat if you’re feeling extra fired up about some of the names I do (or don’t) have here. Have a great week!
Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social
