Looking at the overall 2024 fantasy baseball rankings, the top 80 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball is from around 200 overall to 275 overall, which is just about the end for 12-team mixed leagues. This is your late fourth, mostly fifth thru the beginning of the sixth starters. This is just about it for 12 team leagues, though the last tier in this post is still in 12-team league territory, so you’ll have to wait until the next post to finish off that tier. Don’t worry, on that next post, I’ll be by with another 70-ish pitchers for those in deeper leagues, and/or dynasty and keeper leagues. Or for those that just like to read about fantasy baseball while the world burns around them. I fall into that latter camp. Our subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room — now for auction drafts, AL-Only, NL-Only, Best Ball and more. Here’s Steamer’s 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
CLICK BACK TO THE TOP 60 STARTERS
61. Lucas Giolito – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Rodon. I call this tier, “FAFO.” As for Giolito, here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Red Sox. [hands in prayer formation] All of those 465-foot homers are going to become 118 MPH singles off the wall! Can’t spell Lucas Giolito without Las go! It’s not quite Let’s Go, but I also can’t recommend him in any way, so that’s kind of perfect. Best part of this is likely that the Red Sox now won’t be tempted to insert Whitlock into the rotation. Is that a huge positive? No, but neither is Giolito.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 11-13/4.34/1.35/208 in 188 IP
62. Carlos Rodon – He is so dope if he’s healthy. He hasn’t been healthy in roughly [doing quick math that is taking me so long that you can’t really call it ‘quick’ anymore] like 20 months! It’s been a while! ACKSUALLY, he gave up 8 ER vs. the Royals in his final start last year, so I don’t know if he’s even healthy now. Seeing people say he’s a bargain, and, I guess, he is, in that you don’t have to spend much to IL him all season. 2024 Projections: 7-7/4.05/1.31/119 in 109 IP
63. Yusei Kikuchi – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Stroman. I call this tier, “Broken emergency anchor glass.” This tier is usually filled with safe number five starters who you can get cheap and they anchor your staff. In the past, this was a condom tier. Something that could glue the team together. A Dollar Store condom, so there was some risk, but the wrapper says it’s safe. Not this year. No one is safe. These guys are the closest guys I can find to anchor your staff, but the emergency glass is broken and the anchor is hanging out on the floor. You can see I’m very familiar with ships, thinking anchors are behind emergency glass. Usually this tier is cheap, older guys, but this year is a super random collection of risky starters that feel more “break in case of emergency” than usual.
As for Kikuchi, I’ve been meaning to rank him for the last twenty starters. He had a 9.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.77 xFIP, threw the most innings of his career, has had years of a 48% ground ball rate, and gained velocity. That’s going for him, and why I nearly ranked him twenty spots higher, but I guess he has some risk, because this is all new, i.e., if shizz went pear-shaped for Kikuchi in the first two weeks of April, would I have so much faith to not drop him? Absolutely not. 2024 Projections: 10-8/3.92/1.29/162 in 154 IP
64. Nick Lodolo – A pitcher getting 12 Ks in 5 IP and giving up 6 ER on three homers that all followed walks? That’s a LodoLOL. A start that is 12 Ks in 5 IP with 0 ER? That’s a LodoYOLO. He didn’t fit neatly in any tier. He’s way more upside (and downside) than the rest of this tier. With one eye, I can see how Lodolo looks like Tyler Glasnow 200 picks later. With my other eye, I can see how too many homers allowed in a terrible park with his command and he’s about to have you asking your commissioner if the league can change from ERA to xFIP. As long as he throws 130 IP with a 11-ish K/9, I’d guess he’ll be worth this draft spot pretty easily. 2024 Projections: 8-11/4.03/1.32/166 in 132 IP
65. Kenta Maeda – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Tigers. Have no idea what is going on with Kenta Maeda and the universe, but he needs to get right with it, because his luck is absurdly bad. His last two years (over three years, due to surgery which is its own kind of bad luck): 210 IP, 4.45-ish ERA and a 10-ish K/9 and 2.5-ish BB/9. If I had the time or inclination, I could see a Kenta Maeda sleeper post. I won’t be writing it, but I could see it.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 8-10/3.94/1.16/164 in 144 IP
66. Cristopher Sanchez – This tier is sneaky interesting. Yes, it’s risky, which is why it’s ranked this low, but Cris Not-an-Angel had an 8.7 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 3.09 xFIP. He’s likely in a place where he’ll be skipped in the rotation on occasion and he doesn’t have overwhelming velocity (92 MPH), but ten miles difference between that and his change, which is his dynamite pitch. His command has been awful in past years, but if he’s corrected that, then there could be a nice little backend piece here. 2024 Projections: 7-6/3.66/1.12/127 in 131 IP
67. Triston McKenzie – His velocity was fine when he returned in September from his UCL sprain. Here’s his doctor demonstrating how that’s a good thing, [puts five matchsticks on the table] “This is Triston McKenzie.” [lights matchstick on throwing arm] “You see how the matchstick eventually goes out on its own and the other matchsticks don’t burn? He’s fine!” So, I don’t know what the deal is with his elbow (or shoulder that bothered him last spring). This is late enough for me to take a flyer on a guy who weighs the same as a paper airplane. I’d put it at 50/50 odds that I’m removing him from the rankings in March when he has a setback. I will project him for best case scenario, but keep that in mind. 2024 Projections: 8-6/3.59/1.06/148 in 146 IP
68. John Means – See him being drafted way after this and I’m not sure why. I’m guessing people are worried because he’s returning from Tommy John surgery. If he were the first pitcher ever to try out this new procedure, and everyone was holding their breath thinking, “If it works, I’m going to have it and call it Johnny Means Surgery,” then I can understand the hesitation, but we’re like 50 years into Tommy John. He’s not exactly an ace when healthy, but he’s not much worse than a five or six, and, if he could safely throw 160 IP, he’d be a number three. 2024 Projections: 10-7/3.56/1.21/119 in 132 IP
69. Nestor Cortes – Thinking his last season can be written off for an injury, and, while maybe he’s not as great as he was two years ago, he could be solid enough, while being in a good place for wins. From his numbers, it looks like all he really needs is to correct his command a bit, which was likely being affected from his injury. Expecting a bounce back and feeling fine drafting him? Not really, but this is largely due to the price that it takes to acquire him, and what he could do if healthy. 2024 Projections: 12-7/3.88/1.18/149 in 146 IP
70. Michael Wacha – Here’s what I said when he signed with the Royals, “Prolly could’ve wrote a sleeper post for Michael Wacha, but talk about a boring post. “He was good for the last two years and is being drafted 100 spots after where he should be. So, um, how’s everyone doing? Anyone do anything for the holidays? Ran over your grandmother with a reindeer? Cool. Had some figgy pudding myself and got gas.” Kauffman Stadium is about as good as it gets, and Wacha’s wildly underrated. Sticking with the Royals’ theme, people will be clamoring for Cole Ragans, but Wacha will end up more valuable.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 8-10/3.46/1.14/143 in 156 IP
71. Dean Kremer – Surprised at how high I am on Dean Kremer vs. others. Don’t get it twisted like the scrunchie holding your ponytail, you dirty hippie, this is not high-high like I’m telling you he’s a number two or something. This is barely drafted in shallower leagues, if at all (depending on how shallow). Member when we used to draft Padres pitchers simply because of their stadium? Well…[gestures wildly at Orioles starters] They were third best in league for HR/FB%, Kremer had 1.4 HR/9 and the 22nd lowest fly ball rate in the majors. If that doesn’t add up for you, it doesn’t for me either. He’s not on most people’s radars (prolly) because he also had the 9th lowest ground balls and gives up an absurd number of line drives. You know who else gives up a lot of line drives? Spencer Strider. El oh no, I didn’t just compare Kremer to Strider. No, I’m not gonna call him Dean Striderstein, but for the price? Sure! 2024 Projections: 11-9/4.02/1.29/162 in 178 IP
72. Dane Dunning – Two years ago I wrote a Dane Dunning sleeper post. I don’t say that to brag, because it’s far from a brag. It’s not a humblebrag either, because I didn’t draft him everywhere last year. It’s a fumblebrag. A brag that isn’t even brag. It does show you I liked Dunning for a while now, so when he had a 3.70 ERA last year and was the 44th best starter on the Player Rater, it didn’t entirely shock me. Somehow, he’s totally forgotten again. He might seem the one guy ranked too high in this tier, and he’s the guy coming off easily the best season after Kikuchi. Maeda was the 78th best starter last year. Again, Dunning was the 44th best. Dunning is a high ground ball guy, solid enough Ks, should be good command and can actually throw 180 IP on the World Series champs (chance for wins). Only problem I have with him is his first and last name are wasting keys. His full name should just be Danning. 2024 Projections: 11-9/3.81/1.24/159 in 179 IP
73. Marcus Stroman – Signed with the Yankees. If you’re into real life drama, then may I suggest you grab some popcorn because, gurrrl, The Stroman Show with the Yanks is going to be us sippin’ tea like we got Tetley stock. Looking forward to the boos after he gives up four earned in five innings and flips off the Hasids coming up the tunnel. If none of that makes any sense to you, bless your smooth brain, I wish I had it. For fantasy? Meh, he’s okay for ratios and maybe wins. Hopefully his hip is fine, because it clearly hurt his usually pinpoint control. He never strikes out many, which is fine, but if his command isn’t there, it could be tough sledding. I’m fine with the flyer for a 5th fantasy starter, but the upside here seems slight, like him standing. 2024 Projections: 11-8/3.71/1.18/141 in 163 IP
74. Kutter Crawford – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I’m using the milkrowave.” Is using the microwave fun? No. Is it fun to use the microwave and call it the milkrowave? Yes, undeniably. That’s this tier. Guys who are likely just using microwaves, but it’s late and I’m enjoying myself by pronouncing it milkrowave, making these guys fun. Last year, in this tier I ranked Tyler Glasnow, Justin Steele, and Bailey Ober. Plus, some guys like Triston McKenzie, who are doing a little better. Then there’s Reid Detmers and Edward Cabrera who are in this tier every year. Sure, there were some duds, I have the Kopechs to prove it, but this is so late you could’ve dropped any of these guys and grabbed one of the better ones in most leagues. I’m not saying to do it, but you could prolly only draft starters from this tier in shallower leagues and be fine.
As for Kutter, already gave you my Kutter Crawford sleeper. It was written while talking with my hand like Señor Wences. 2024 Projections: 12-10/3.74/1.09/154 in 151 IP
75. MacKenzie Gore – Already gave you my MacKenzie Gore sleeper. It was written on the underside of a frisbee. 2024 Projections: 8-10/3.83/1.33/177 in 161 IP
76. Shota Imanaga – Signed with the Cubs. You know what this means? The Cubs are not gonna waste their–No, they’re not going to waste their–Shota is 30 years old, and has years of iffiness in Japan (unlike Yamamoto). Recently, Shota’s been lights outa. Last year, he went 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with 188 Ks in 159 IP, that’s 10.6 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9. He works off a 94.4 MPH fastball (maxes out at 96.2); 73.1 MPH curve; a 84 MPH splitter and 82.8 MPH slider. You basically need to be the elite-iest (it’s a word because I say so!) of the elite-iest to make it work in MLB what worked in Japan, and I think he’s just below that level. He gave up a few too many homers in NPB — here’s a comp: Yamamoto allowed two homers all year; Shota gave up 18. In Wrigley? He could get bombed out. His command is solid, but Yu Darvish was a 0.83 WHIP pitcher in Japan before coming here. Shota’s ranked around the same spot on our Steamer rankings, and I feel comfortable with him being a fantasy five to six. In shallower leagues, if you wanted to reach for him to be a number four? Sure, that’s fine, but I’m expecting some blow ups. 2024 Projections: 10-8/3.91/1.17/164 in 152 IP
77. Andrew Abbott – Kinda stinks that the Reds are sorta competitive, because a Reds’ dump trade with their starters to, say, the Mariners or Orioles? That would be awesome for their value. The Reds’ starters would become top 20 starters in better parks. The Reds’ entire staff will appropriately leave you chafed. One week it’s gonna be like, “Yes, I am so glad I drafted Hunter Greene, Abbott and Lodolo! They struck out 30 in only 15 IP!” Another week it’s gonna be, “I might not meet my H2H weekly requirement for innings because my three Reds starters went 3 1/3 IP collectively giving up 15 earned.” 2024 Projections: 8-11/4.11/1.34/170 in 151 IP
78. Reid Detmers – Going to pull a quote from my 2022 Detmers sleeper…Actually, thinking I’ll pull a quote from my Detmers 2023 sleeper…Hold up, did I write a sleeper post for him this year too? I didn’t? Wow, maybe I’ll write one again next year. Reid Detmers, the every year sleeper. Okay, so there’s still hope for Detmers. He only had a 4.48 ERA last year! That was meant as a joke. At least he stayed healthy last year. He had a 10.2 K/9, and was not-that-long-ago considered a command specialist, which is all he needs to put it together. Just wait until you read my Reid Detmers 2025 sleeper! 2024 Projections: 9-11/4.23/1.28/164 in 152 IP
79. Reese Olson – Had a 95 MPH fastball that worked well last year (.179 BAA), and a slider that he threw 30% of the time and had a .217 BAA. His 3.99 ERA was actually a bit unlucky, and he had great K/9’s in the minors. The command is very wonky, or has been, so I’m securely on the fence he can be worthwhile for very long, if at all, but I’m intrigued enough to rank him here, which is the last gasp of upside starters for shallower leagues. 2024 Projections: 7-9/4.05/1.28/156 in 157 IP
80. Brayan Bello – You know we love ourselves some starters in their third MLB season. Bello’s got a chance to be good example of that or completely ignored by me next year so that narrative stays in tact. The fact that Bello hasn’t been good in the majors for any extended period of time has me interested, while reminding what this tier also is in most shallower leagues: The first guys you cut for a waiver wire pickup. Bello is possibly the biggest difference between results and his stuff, though, i.e., if he goes “Daddy loves him, Bello go wow,” it wouldn’t shock me at all. You watch his fastball and sinker and you’re like, “How is anyone hitting that?” But they are, they absolutely have been. 2024 Projections: 8-11/4.19/1.32/145 in 160 IP
