Introduction
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but I just want to say; that last year was last year. It’s not your fault, this is a safe space, and it was probably Oli Marmol’s fault. There… doesn’t that feel better now? I feel like any Tyler O’Neill post this season needs to start with that. A lot of things didn’t go the way we planned them to last year. This year though is a new year, new opportunities.
Why is that you ask? Easy, the Cardinals’ Tyler O’Neill was traded to the Boston Red Sox for RHP Nick Robertson and RHP Victor Santos. Captain Canada has flown the coop. He’s free. Finally free. I could wax poetically for an entire article about the history of successful outfielders who have found success AFTER leaving the confines of the St. Louis Cardinals roster. Instead, I’ll just summarize it with Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Lane Thomas, Randal Grichuk, to name a few… and now… Tyler O’Neill.
Everybody Likes Comps
So many Redbirds have stretched their wings after leaving. Now I could just hang this entire article on the bad juju of the Cardinals trading away another outfielder. Razzball chat is constantly filled with our dreams of promising Cardinals roaming the outfield for someone else. But! I will instead fill your mind with data and facts to support this transaction IN ADDITION to the STL de-cursing.
Let’s start with comparisons, you like comparisons right? Here’s a blind study to chew on of two players over the last 3 years:
| BB% | K% | SLG | OPS | LD% | GB% | FB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 8.80% | 28.50% | 0.472 | 0.800 | 21.20% | 39.60% | 39.20% |
| Player 2 | 6.40% | 31.50% | 0.479 | 0.766 | 19.20% | 27.00% | 53.80% |
And if that wasn’t enough, how about this one with statcast batted ball data:
| HR/FB | EV | maxEV | Barrel% | Pull% | Hard% | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 1 | 20.00% | 91.1 | 113.1 | 14.40% | 41.30% | 37.70% | 118 |
| Player 2 | 17.70% | 89.1 | 113.8 | 14.40% | 51.10% | 35.00% | 102 |
Player 1 is none other than our featured man, Tyler O’Neill. Player 2 is now-journeyman slugger Adam Duvall. Eerily close aren’t they? Duvall just had a 1-year deal with Boston in which he looked like a sure-fire All-star and draft bargain if not for a fractured wrist that derailed his season. Despite the injury, he finished the 2023 campaign with 21 HR, 58 RBI, .247 AVG in 92 games.
O’Neil is a similar right-handed power hitter coming into Fenway, and similar results are not out of reach. Right-handed sluggers always fare well in Boston due to the ability to bang liners off the Green Monster all day and carry their share of bombs out of the park. And he could certainly outperform that line just given the opportunity of staying healthy and playing more games. Understandably, “Staying healthy” is doing a lot of lifting in that statement. Not only does Tyler share Adam’s batting profile, but he also shares his penchant for IL stints.
Health Equals Wealth
Which brings me to my next point, Tyler struggled last year due to a lingering back injury that troubled him even off the field. Earlier this offseason he spoke to the Foul Territory podcast and talked about finally feeling healthy, a full range of motion in his back again (last year had pain even when he was picking up his child from daycare), and feeling strong in his shoulder. Last year he wasn’t able to do a full weight routine; but now this offseason he can.
Value Shopping
One of these guys is leaving Boston, and one of them is arriving. That’s where freedom and greener pastures come into play. Also, with as miserable as last season was, Tyler O’Neill’s draft price is a very stomach-soothing 220 ADP right now. That comes after Nimmo, Kelenic, and Varsho. All of which I will happily pass on for the new-team energy of Tyler O’Neill.
So what can we expect from Captain Canada’s freedom tour? Did I mention that Verdugo was traded to the Yankees? O’Neill will likely be patrolling the short and cozy left field all to himself and possibly his second real opportunity for full playing time in his 28-year-old season. Now is his time to shine. Given 550 AB, It is not unreasonable to see him achieve something to the tune of 25/12/.260 and 150 counters with a chance for more. At that price, I’m buying all day for the chance at a big re-breakout.
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
